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Hubbert peak oil theory seems to not really hold water in retrospect. People try to say the peak is just delayed as we're finding more oil reserves or because t

Hubbert peak oil theory seems to not really hold water in retrospect. People try to say the peak is just delayed as we're finding more oil reserves or because there's been a big switch to renewables. I think his models assumed a very different metrics for oil supply and distribution that don't seem to apply today. This podcast from a few years back goes into a lot of it: https://youtu.be/0wlNey9t7hQ https://youtu.be/0wlNey9t7hQ

ethbro 7y ago
Not an expert, but the doomsday peak scenario seemed predicated on no fundamentally different oil sources becoming available (e.g. shale). As it played out, fracking technology matured, and a lot of additional supply was "added" once the price crossed a threshold.
Nasrudith 7y ago
Yeah the situation shifting on you does that for models without a proper metamodel that includes shifts over time for extraction capabilities a discovey which are both challenges in themselves lacking future knowledge. Sadly we aren't up to Terrahertz processors for instance.
roenxi 7y ago
The theory has two parts - first the specific curve. Production left the curve, so that was probably wrong. The other part is the too-obvious-to-argue observation that we are using a substantial fraction of a non-renewable resource and it is going to run out. It doesn't tell a comprehensive story but discoveries vs consumption [0] of crude says we are going to run out shortly. That part is still hard to challenge. We'll see if the shale gas boom is sustainable. The oil prices required to make it profitable are not comfortable. It isn't obvious to me what the 'new technology' here was beyond prices being very high in 2010. We'll be using a lot less oil at those prices. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:World_crude_discovery_production_U-2200Gb_LaherrereMar2015.jpg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:World_crude_discovery_pro...

ethbro 7y ago

Not an expert, but the doomsday peak scenario seemed predicated on no fundamentally different oil sources becoming available (e.g. shale). As it played out, fracking technology matured, and a lot of additional supply was "added" once the price crossed a threshold.

Nasrudith 7y ago

Yeah the situation shifting on you does that for models without a proper metamodel that includes shifts over time for extraction capabilities a discovey which are both challenges in themselves lacking future knowledge. Sadly we aren't up to Terrahertz processors for instance.

roenxi 7y ago

The theory has two parts - first the specific curve. Production left the curve, so that was probably wrong. The other part is the too-obvious-to-argue observation that we are using a substantial fraction of a non-renewable resource and it is going to run out. It doesn't tell a comprehensive story but discoveries vs consumption [0] of crude says we are going to run out shortly. That part is still hard to challenge. We'll see if the shale gas boom is sustainable. The oil prices required to make it profitable are not comfortable. It isn't obvious to me what the 'new technology' here was beyond prices being very high in 2010. We'll be using a lot less oil at those prices. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:World_crude_discovery_production_U-2200Gb_LaherrereMar2015.jpg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:World_crude_discovery_pro...