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It's times like these that I really wonder where all the oil peak guys are who you used to see crawl out of the woodwork whenever anyone talked about oil. Now

It's times like these that I really wonder where all the oil peak guys are who you used to see crawl out of the woodwork whenever anyone talked about oil. Now they're suddenly quiet. They used to predict doom and gloom due to an oil shortage, but what we got instead was doom and gloom and an oil glut. Where are they now?

djsumdog 7y ago
Hubbert peak oil theory seems to not really hold water in retrospect. People try to say the peak is just delayed as we're finding more oil reserves or because there's been a big switch to renewables. I think his models assumed a very different metrics for oil supply and distribution that don't seem to apply today. This podcast from a few years back goes into a lot of it: https://youtu.be/0wlNey9t7hQ https://youtu.be/0wlNey9t7hQ
- ethbro 7y ago
  Not an expert, but the doomsday peak scenario seemed predicated on no fundamentally different oil sources becoming available (e.g. shale). As it played out, fracking technology matured, and a lot of additional supply was "added" once the price crossed a threshold.
- Nasrudith 7y ago
  Yeah the situation shifting on you does that for models without a proper metamodel that includes shifts over time for extraction capabilities a discovey which are both challenges in themselves lacking future knowledge. Sadly we aren't up to Terrahertz processors for instance.
- roenxi 7y ago
  The theory has two parts - first the specific curve. Production left the curve, so that was probably wrong. The other part is the too-obvious-to-argue observation that we are using a substantial fraction of a non-renewable resource and it is going to run out. It doesn't tell a comprehensive story but discoveries vs consumption [0] of crude says we are going to run out shortly. That part is still hard to challenge. We'll see if the shale gas boom is sustainable. The oil prices required to make it profitable are not comfortable. It isn't obvious to me what the 'new technology' here was beyond prices being very high in 2010. We'll be using a lot less oil at those prices. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:World_crude_discovery_production_U-2200Gb_LaherrereMar2015.jpg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:World_crude_discovery_pro...
dntbnmpls 7y ago
> It's times like these that I really wonder where all the oil peak guys are who you used to see crawl out of the woodwork whenever anyone talked about oil They are still around. Now they just rebranded themselves as "green energy advocates". > They used to predict doom and gloom due to an oil shortage, but what we got instead was doom and gloom and an oil glut. Where are they now? Check out yesterday's thread. A few of them there. Now, instead of saying high oil prices is good for green energy, now they are saying low oil prices are good for green energy. Don't bother pointing out the flaw in their logic or you'll get flagged. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23041286 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23041286
corporateslave5 7y ago
Take this example and realize how many other beliefs it could apply to
christophilus 7y ago
When you have a complex system, simplistic projections should be held suspect. The more confident the presenter, the higher the degree of skepticism. This framework has served me well. Peak oil is inevitable, given the fact that it’s a finite resource. But what its advocates failed to consider was how quickly free markets innovate when the price incentive is high enough.

djsumdog 7y ago

Hubbert peak oil theory seems to not really hold water in retrospect. People try to say the peak is just delayed as we're finding more oil reserves or because there's been a big switch to renewables. I think his models assumed a very different metrics for oil supply and distribution that don't seem to apply today. This podcast from a few years back goes into a lot of it: https://youtu.be/0wlNey9t7hQ https://youtu.be/0wlNey9t7hQ

ethbro 7y ago
Not an expert, but the doomsday peak scenario seemed predicated on no fundamentally different oil sources becoming available (e.g. shale). As it played out, fracking technology matured, and a lot of additional supply was "added" once the price crossed a threshold.
Nasrudith 7y ago
Yeah the situation shifting on you does that for models without a proper metamodel that includes shifts over time for extraction capabilities a discovey which are both challenges in themselves lacking future knowledge. Sadly we aren't up to Terrahertz processors for instance.
roenxi 7y ago
The theory has two parts - first the specific curve. Production left the curve, so that was probably wrong. The other part is the too-obvious-to-argue observation that we are using a substantial fraction of a non-renewable resource and it is going to run out. It doesn't tell a comprehensive story but discoveries vs consumption [0] of crude says we are going to run out shortly. That part is still hard to challenge. We'll see if the shale gas boom is sustainable. The oil prices required to make it profitable are not comfortable. It isn't obvious to me what the 'new technology' here was beyond prices being very high in 2010. We'll be using a lot less oil at those prices. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:World_crude_discovery_production_U-2200Gb_LaherrereMar2015.jpg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:World_crude_discovery_pro...

dntbnmpls 7y ago

> It's times like these that I really wonder where all the oil peak guys are who you used to see crawl out of the woodwork whenever anyone talked about oil They are still around. Now they just rebranded themselves as "green energy advocates". > They used to predict doom and gloom due to an oil shortage, but what we got instead was doom and gloom and an oil glut. Where are they now? Check out yesterday's thread. A few of them there. Now, instead of saying high oil prices is good for green energy, now they are saying low oil prices are good for green energy. Don't bother pointing out the flaw in their logic or you'll get flagged. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23041286 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23041286

corporateslave5 7y ago

Take this example and realize how many other beliefs it could apply to

christophilus 7y ago

When you have a complex system, simplistic projections should be held suspect. The more confident the presenter, the higher the degree of skepticism. This framework has served me well. Peak oil is inevitable, given the fact that it’s a finite resource. But what its advocates failed to consider was how quickly free markets innovate when the price incentive is high enough.