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> I read in a research pointed out in an Ars Technica article that contact tracing using technology starts providing more utility when 60% of the population use

> I read in a research pointed out in an Ars Technica article that contact tracing using technology starts providing more utility when 60% of the population uses it. According to the research Ars Technica referenced, digital contact tracing doesn't start becoming effective at 60% - at 60% usage, digital contact tracing can stop the pandemic [0]. If even just two people use digital contact tracing, then it can be effective: Say one of the two people with the contact tracing app test positive for COVID-19. If the app knows that the person who tested positive came into contact with the other person who has the app, then we'd know that we should test the other person, too. If the contact also tests positive, we can isolate them to prevent further spread. [0] https://www.research.ox.ac.uk/Article/2020-04-16-digital-contact-tracing-can-slow-or-even-stop-coronavirus-transmission-and-ease-us-out-of-lockdown https://www.research.ox.ac.uk/Article/2020-04-16-digital-con...

nosuchthing 6y ago
According to the research Ars Technica referenced, digital contact tracing doesn't start becoming effective at 60% - at 60% usage, digital contact tracing can stop the pandemic There's no silver bullet with this virus. Contact tracing has proven ineffective in Singapore [1], even with additional layers of surveillance and thousands of dedicated staff reviewing CCTV footage, cell tower location data, and calling those suspected exposed to confirmed cases. https://www.economist.com/asia/2020/04/11/not-even-singapore-has-been-able-to-avoid-a-lockdown https://www.economist.com/asia/2020/04/11/not-even-singapore... All the while efficient contact-tracing teams—including members of the police and the army—identified and isolated thousands of people possibly infected with the virus. Members of the armed forces have been making up to 2,000 calls a day to hunt for potential carriers. Those told to stay at home for 14 days have been monitored assiduously to ensure compliance. (Unco-operative types face prosecution or the loss of their residency rights, if they are not citizens.) Yet in spite of everything, the virus continues to spread. Singapore’s approach continues to evolve. Take face masks. Initially Singaporeans were advised that they did not need to wear them unless unwell. Then on April 3rd, in his third televised address on covid-19, Lee Hsien Loong, the prime minister, said that the government would no longer discourage their use and would, in fact, distribute reusable ones to every household. Singapore’s testing regime may alter too. Currently people’s travel history and symptoms are among the factors considered before they are tested for the coronavirus. But health officials say the approach is reviewed regularly and that wider testing might be adopted in future. The difficulty with SARS-CoV-2 is once exposed, there's a window of several days of asymptomatic contagious transmissions. This is a biological health problem, and an app won't stop the spread. Viral fomites are like dust particles, airborne and remaining infectious on surfaces for upwards of 1-9 days depending on environmental factors [2]. Epidemiologists have predicted a global pandemic would happen sooner or later [3], and without a safe treatment the most effective action is to use Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions in any region where the virus might spread. Obviously due to modern air travel, it's now nearly everywhere. [1] https://www.economist.com/asia/2020/04/11/not-even-singapore-has-been-able-to-avoid-a-lockdown https://www.economist.com/asia/2020/04/11/not-even-singapore... [2] https://news.llu.edu/health-wellness/covid-19-virus-remains-active-some-surfaces-longer-than-previously-thought https://news.llu.edu/health-wellness/covid-19-virus-remains-... [3] https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/5/19-0995_article https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/5/19-0995_article https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/11425 https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/11425 https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/45220 https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/45220 https://cme-mec.ca/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/CME_Pandemic_Guide_Eng_2009Final.pdf https://cme-mec.ca/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/CME_Pandemic_G... https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/sites/portal/files/documents/Guide-to-pandemic-preparedness-revised.pdf https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/sites/portal/files/documents/Guid...
- toxik 6y ago
  Please stop abusing the code formatting to do block quotes. It is impossible to read on mobile browsers.
- mkolodny 6y ago
  If you haven't seen it, check out Dr. Jim Yong Kim's article in the New Yorker: "It's not too late to go on offense against the Coronavirus" [0]. Dr. Kim led the World Health Organization's fight against AIDS in Africa. He's also fought many other epidemics around the world for thirty years. In his article, Dr. Kim says that any one tool isn't enough. We need to use a full five-part response to end the pandemic: social distancing, contact tracing, testing, isolation, and treatment. Contract tracing alone isn't enough (as we saw in Singapore). Neither is social distancing (as we see in the US). Dr. Kim shared that in his experience we need all five parts to end an epidemic. [0] https://www.newyorker.com/science/medical-dispatch/its-not-too-late-to-go-on-offense-against-the-coronavirus https://www.newyorker.com/science/medical-dispatch/its-not-t...
  - redis_mlc 6y ago
    > We need to use a full five-part response to end the pandemic: social distancing, contact tracing, testing, isolation, and treatment. This is the US - we don't do any of those.
- perl4ever 6y ago
  "There's no silver bullet with this virus." Well, that doesn't make any sense to me, given the reported experience of some countries like China, South Korea, and New Zealand. Unless they are all covering up/fabricating statistics, then somebody has discovered a silver bullet, even if most places haven't.
  - tinus_hn 6y ago
    It’s the infinite quarantine argument. Nobody will get immune and the vaccine/cure is years into the future, so we all better stay at home forever while the government takes money out of the infinite supply so we can order food that’s not processed in all these factories that are closed.

nosuchthing 6y ago

According to the research Ars Technica referenced, digital contact tracing doesn't start becoming effective at 60% - at 60% usage, digital contact tracing can stop the pandemic There's no silver bullet with this virus. Contact tracing has proven ineffective in Singapore [1], even with additional layers of surveillance and thousands of dedicated staff reviewing CCTV footage, cell tower location data, and calling those suspected exposed to confirmed cases. https://www.economist.com/asia/2020/04/11/not-even-singapore-has-been-able-to-avoid-a-lockdown https://www.economist.com/asia/2020/04/11/not-even-singapore... All the while efficient contact-tracing teams—including members of the police and the army—identified and isolated thousands of people possibly infected with the virus. Members of the armed forces have been making up to 2,000 calls a day to hunt for potential carriers. Those told to stay at home for 14 days have been monitored assiduously to ensure compliance. (Unco-operative types face prosecution or the loss of their residency rights, if they are not citizens.) Yet in spite of everything, the virus continues to spread. Singapore’s approach continues to evolve. Take face masks. Initially Singaporeans were advised that they did not need to wear them unless unwell. Then on April 3rd, in his third televised address on covid-19, Lee Hsien Loong, the prime minister, said that the government would no longer discourage their use and would, in fact, distribute reusable ones to every household. Singapore’s testing regime may alter too. Currently people’s travel history and symptoms are among the factors considered before they are tested for the coronavirus. But health officials say the approach is reviewed regularly and that wider testing might be adopted in future. The difficulty with SARS-CoV-2 is once exposed, there's a window of several days of asymptomatic contagious transmissions. This is a biological health problem, and an app won't stop the spread. Viral fomites are like dust particles, airborne and remaining infectious on surfaces for upwards of 1-9 days depending on environmental factors [2]. Epidemiologists have predicted a global pandemic would happen sooner or later [3], and without a safe treatment the most effective action is to use Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions in any region where the virus might spread. Obviously due to modern air travel, it's now nearly everywhere. [1] https://www.economist.com/asia/2020/04/11/not-even-singapore-has-been-able-to-avoid-a-lockdown https://www.economist.com/asia/2020/04/11/not-even-singapore... [2] https://news.llu.edu/health-wellness/covid-19-virus-remains-active-some-surfaces-longer-than-previously-thought https://news.llu.edu/health-wellness/covid-19-virus-remains-... [3] https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/5/19-0995_article https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/5/19-0995_article https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/11425 https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/11425 https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/45220 https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/45220 https://cme-mec.ca/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/CME_Pandemic_Guide_Eng_2009Final.pdf https://cme-mec.ca/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/CME_Pandemic_G... https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/sites/portal/files/documents/Guide-to-pandemic-preparedness-revised.pdf https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/sites/portal/files/documents/Guid...

toxik 6y ago
Please stop abusing the code formatting to do block quotes. It is impossible to read on mobile browsers.
mkolodny 6y ago
If you haven't seen it, check out Dr. Jim Yong Kim's article in the New Yorker: "It's not too late to go on offense against the Coronavirus" [0]. Dr. Kim led the World Health Organization's fight against AIDS in Africa. He's also fought many other epidemics around the world for thirty years. In his article, Dr. Kim says that any one tool isn't enough. We need to use a full five-part response to end the pandemic: social distancing, contact tracing, testing, isolation, and treatment. Contract tracing alone isn't enough (as we saw in Singapore). Neither is social distancing (as we see in the US). Dr. Kim shared that in his experience we need all five parts to end an epidemic. [0] https://www.newyorker.com/science/medical-dispatch/its-not-too-late-to-go-on-offense-against-the-coronavirus https://www.newyorker.com/science/medical-dispatch/its-not-t...
- redis_mlc 6y ago
  > We need to use a full five-part response to end the pandemic: social distancing, contact tracing, testing, isolation, and treatment. This is the US - we don't do any of those.
perl4ever 6y ago
"There's no silver bullet with this virus." Well, that doesn't make any sense to me, given the reported experience of some countries like China, South Korea, and New Zealand. Unless they are all covering up/fabricating statistics, then somebody has discovered a silver bullet, even if most places haven't.
- tinus_hn 6y ago
  It’s the infinite quarantine argument. Nobody will get immune and the vaccine/cure is years into the future, so we all better stay at home forever while the government takes money out of the infinite supply so we can order food that’s not processed in all these factories that are closed.