4 ms·
Yes, that's basically correct, but think less econ and more accounting. Keep in mind: 1) That the $20/bbl cost is likely with capex amortized on the assumptio
by beerandt 7y ago
Yes, that's basically correct, but think less econ and more accounting.
Keep in mind:
1) That the $20/bbl cost is likely with capex amortized on the assumption that the well isn't shut-in. You'd either have to add a one-time write-off for the capex balance (if you can afford to), or at least re-amortize. Either way, looking at the existing/assumed $/bbl cost vs market price isn't correct for most decision making purposes.
2) The act of shutting-in (and re-starting production) have direct costs to be accounted for. It's not as simple as pushing a button that activates a remote controlled valve. There's (almost) always physical work to be done, plus compliance / permitting work associated with any changes. More-so for restarts, if you assume the shut-in will be temporary, and want to account for that cost in decision making.
3) opex costs are largely still discrete to some extent (ie, not literally a cost in $/bbl, except pipeline transport and royalties), and can still be sunk costs.
Shutting-in wells doesn't necessarily reduce opex to $0, whether immediately or longer term.
Yearly maintenance might have been done last week. Tanker service already contracted for the year, or a direct pipeline already built. Lease and permit fees paid for the next X years. The lease might be contracted at some fixed cost plus royalties, for 10+ years, with the fixed cost guaranteed.
New for 2020: If the company took a PPP loan (or otherwise is trying to avoid layoffs) they have to keep surplus personnel, which then becomes a sunk cost.
Now if you look at exploration instead of production, it's much more likely to be a textbook case of if (cost > price), then (stop work immediately).
- hinkley 7y agoI recall years ago when people would argue about tape or spinning rust for safekeeping old backups and the drive people would talk about tapes sticking together, while the tape people would talk about bearings seizing if they don't spin the drives up from time to time. Things that are meant to keep moving tend not to fare well when they are left to sit for too long. If you have a classic car you have to drive it or everything starts to seize, separate, or gel. I expect oil well equipment is not so different.