I think you’re missing the mark slightly by focusing on housing prices alone. There are two other key variables here. One is incomes. It’s quite plausible that

I think you’re missing the mark slightly by focusing on housing prices alone. There are two other key variables here. One is incomes. It’s quite plausible that defaults in a year or three will turn out to be extremely uncorrelated with today’s credit scores. The second one is interest rates, which are spectacularly low. Those two things combined make it very hard to predict how much profit a line of credit type product will be able to produce.