there are alternatives to believing that the value of the entire housing market is going to drop: 1. your last N years of work/credit history are currently les

there are alternatives to believing that the value of the entire housing market is going to drop: 1. your last N years of work/credit history are currently less predictive about future income/repayment ability than banks would like. regardless of who you are. 2. even if the same amount of money continues to chase the housing market, there is (as some other comments mention) at least a little bit of a reason to believe that the money might want to move to different geographic areas. if you don't know what that change will look like, your ability to predict future home values is reduced.