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Slightly unrelated but my guess is that we will see a flight out of urban areas as working remotely becomes significantly more prevalent. People will realize th

Slightly unrelated but my guess is that we will see a flight out of urban areas as working remotely becomes significantly more prevalent. People will realize that they can't justify the insane prices, traffic, crime etc. in large urban areas. Smaller cities and remote communities will see an influx of new residents and home and land prices will increase in those areas.

amiga_500 6y ago
The problem is people with kids need access to good schools. Even if "good" is just "perceived as good by the next rung on the ladder, for entrance requirements". These are typically available only centrally.
- toomuchtodo 6y ago
  Some people do. Some people with a stay at home parent homeschool. I don’t want my kids going to subpar public schools, so would rather have their education happen at home, which allows us to live anywhere with my remote job. A counter point to your central schooling argument is Chicago Public Schools, which are terrible.
  - scarface74 6y ago
    Is the person homeschooling your child more of a subject matter expert in all of the areas that the public school teaches? Many parents have found out first hand that they either didn’t know what they were doing or weren’t patient enough to teach their own kids.
    - toomuchtodo 6y ago
      Nope. We learn the material over (having been out of school for at least two decades) from the home school material, and then teach it. If you don’t have patience, but also can’t afford private education of some sort and have to resort to broken public institutions, there's not much hope (imho). Patience is cheap (comparatively speaking). I've learned how to weld, sail, wrench on diesel engines and my Teslas, perform wilderness EMT procedures, woodwork, and build houses/perform large scale home improvement on my own. K-12 is a cake walk. Don't doubt your vibe, you're a fellow human and you can do it too.
      - pletsch 6y ago
        I found one of the most important parts of K-12 is just learning to interact with people your own age + being able to work with people effectively. Are you concerned about this? Or do you have a way to effectively replace this?
        toomuchtodo 6y ago
        We still socialize the kids outside of the house with playdates. Very important. Good point.
        scarface74 6y ago
        There are often group projects especially in high school. Play dates don’t teach how to work as a team. Even in elementary school it’s an important lesson to learn that you’re not a special snowflake and you don’t get all of the attention of superiors (teachers) to yourself.
    - twomoretime 6y ago
      >subject matter expert I think you're overestimating the amount of background knowledge the average tech worker might need to make up to teach elementary and high school subjects from text books. People TA entire college classes with the same amount (0) of experience.
      - scarface74 6y ago
        I took plenty of math classes in high school and college over two decades ago. I look at the average Trig problem and I didn’t know where to start helping my son. I ended up FaceTiming my mom who is a retired high school math teacher. I also have an aunt - a retired high school science teacher - I could call. But how many people have those resources at their beckon call?
        twomoretime 6y ago
        >I look at the average Trig problem and I didn’t know where to start helping my son. Did you try reading the text book? It's made for children. It's high school math. I cannot understand this mindset but I fear it is extremely common and our society is in trouble for it.
        scarface74 6y ago
        Yes we are in trouble because we have this thing called specialization of labor. I learned how to develop software so I could live in the big house in the burbs with the good school system and took advantage of knowing the right people with the right set of skills to help me in other areas. I also shockingly don’t cut my own grass, do my own plumbing or fix my own cars.
        twomoretime 6y ago
        >I also shockingly don’t cut my own grass, do my own plumbing or fix my own cars. I do, and you should too. These things are not difficult to learn. Moreover they are good full body workouts and, speaking from experience with my father, can be excellent bonding experiences. But that's beside the point. You're relying far too much on others if you've lost the ability to spend 5-20 minutes reading one chapter in a children's textbook for a chance to educate and bond with your child. If you can learn a new programming language or framework without someone holding your hand, you can do this basic stuff. I think people either underestimate themselves or they're willing to go to great lengths to justify their laziness.
  - take_a_breath 6y ago
    The 5 best high schools in Illinois are CPS schools [1]. The grade schools are hit and miss by neighborhood. There are great public magnet options if you can test-in or win a lottery. That’s not to say the system is great, but there is a lot more nuance than just declaring them “terrible”. Unless me or my spouse is a trained educator, I will trust the experts. Just like I do when I need medical, electrical or plumbing work done. [1] https://www.usnews.com/education/best-high-schools/illinois https://www.usnews.com/education/best-high-schools/illinois
    - toomuchtodo 6y ago
      I can do better on my own, my two cents, have to do what’s best for you. We sold our place in Cook County because the cost to benefit wasn’t there and property taxes will only rise (Chicago is almost $90 billion in debt per Moody’s, that’s $84k per household) while education keeps getting cut [1]. That’s a big gamble on top of your data about grade schools and magnet schools (my kids won't be in high school for more than half a decade). I’m having a coffee watching the sunrise over Appalachia while some poor sap is dragging themselves to the Blue line. I’m not the best teacher, but life is about trade offs. [1] https://www.google.com/search?q=cps+budget+cuts https://www.google.com/search?q=cps+budget+cuts
      - take_a_breath 6y ago
        You came off that “terrible schools” comment pretty quick. If you’re already going to home school it makes sense to keep taxes lower. But like I said, I’ll trust the experts who went to school and have ongoing training to educate my kids. That way I can focus on being a parent. The way you jump between Cook County and Chicago is also a strange way to measure things. You can live in Cook County and not be in Chicago proper. Cook County has places like Evanston, Hinsdale, Kenilworth, Glenview, and Oak Park with some of the best schools in the country.
        toomuchtodo 6y ago
        I might have parsed it in my head differently, allow me to expound. I said, "CPS is terrible". You said that grade schools are hit or miss, but 5 of the top high schools in Illinois are in CPS, and that there are always magnet schools that require a lottery. In my mind, if you can't offer consistent quality across your territory (Chicago proper) and grade levels (K-12), you are a subpar institution, ie "terrible". There are pockets of success (the high schools you mention, and the luck of my kids getting into a magnet school) but one should not rely on luck for something as critical as their child's education. I bring up the dollars involved (cook county, property taxes, Chicago debt) because that is the fuel for the education engine, and that fuel is running out (pension obligations are protected by the Illinois constitution, education is not). Therefore, it is very likely the education experience in Chicago continues to decline. If it's already bad today (which it is objectively is, based on our subthread discussion and how weighted luck is as a component of your child's experience and success), why would one double down on it (accept fate and put your kids into CPS) while also being financially exposed and locked into the structural decline? Blindly trusting experts is a recipe for disaster. Experts don't always have your individual interests at heart. As an individual, it is your job to optimize for you and your family. I hope this clarifies my admittedly poorly constructed thesis further up the thread. I'm off to make more coffee.
- naveen99 6y ago
  unless reputable schools also start providing remote / online options also.
  - amiga_500 6y ago
    many reputable schools are not about the education, they are about the connections, so I think this is not that likely.
- caymanjim 6y ago
  The more urban an area is, the worse the public schools are. You seem to be providing even more of a reason to flee cities.
closeparen 6y ago
Cities normally have advantages that offset those drawbacks: employers but also amenities, people to meet, events to attend. You trade off the quality of your private space for a richer public realm. But there is no public realm anymore. The biggest cities are as boring as the smallest towns.
take_a_breath 6y ago
Working remotely is one aspect. A counter aspect might be the lack of infrastructure in non-urban areas. Stare and local finances are getting strained. Without a large infrastructure bill, established cities are the only place to put people. Another aspect will be the high costs to build the new housing needed to support a trend like this. Those costs might not make non-urban areas much cheaper than using existing housing stock in large cities.
- ghaff 6y ago
  It's not a choice between Manhattan and the back of beyond though. Even many larger cities have exurb or even rural areas within about an hour drive where property prices, depending on the town, can be fairly affordable even if the downtown is not. It's hard to say how many people who migrated to truly urban living take this as a sign that they should at least move out to the suburbs (where their job is anyway in many cases). I do think that, for jobs that can be done remotely, a lot of companies are going to move away from everyone needing to be in the office all the time--though I suspect very few will go entirely remote.
  - take_a_breath 6y ago
    This is kind of my point. Most places within an hour drive of established cities are pretty well settled. To accommodate new people towns either have to start building more housing (costs increase) or those people will have to move 1 hour and 15 minutes outside the city. Rinse and repeat until the formula doesn’t look as beneficial.
    - ghaff 6y ago
      On the other hand, the migration into cities that we hear so much about is mostly among a fairly narrow demographic (young and college educated) and isn't really a huge number in percentage terms. (And it's essentially just a reversal of a net outflow that took place over decades.) So I'm not really convinced that if some of the people who thought urban living was for them now have second thoughts, there will be a lot of problems accommodating them with housing. And again, a lot of the jobs are out in those suburbs anyway. A lot of the people who moved into cities did so because they wanted to, not because they could walk to their jobs from there.
mrfusion 6y ago
Don’t forget prolonged lockdowns as a new drawback.
kyleblarson 6y ago
I made this comment slightly selfishly because my wife and I left downtown Seattle about 10 years ago to live in a remote area in North Central Washington near the North Cascades National Park. We haven't looked back.
ashtonkem 6y ago
Only to the suburbs. The rural areas are looking worse off, due to underbuilt infrastructure.

amiga_500 6y ago

The problem is people with kids need access to good schools. Even if "good" is just "perceived as good by the next rung on the ladder, for entrance requirements". These are typically available only centrally.

toomuchtodo 6y ago
Some people do. Some people with a stay at home parent homeschool. I don’t want my kids going to subpar public schools, so would rather have their education happen at home, which allows us to live anywhere with my remote job. A counter point to your central schooling argument is Chicago Public Schools, which are terrible.
- scarface74 6y ago
  Is the person homeschooling your child more of a subject matter expert in all of the areas that the public school teaches? Many parents have found out first hand that they either didn’t know what they were doing or weren’t patient enough to teach their own kids.
  - toomuchtodo 6y ago
    Nope. We learn the material over (having been out of school for at least two decades) from the home school material, and then teach it. If you don’t have patience, but also can’t afford private education of some sort and have to resort to broken public institutions, there's not much hope (imho). Patience is cheap (comparatively speaking). I've learned how to weld, sail, wrench on diesel engines and my Teslas, perform wilderness EMT procedures, woodwork, and build houses/perform large scale home improvement on my own. K-12 is a cake walk. Don't doubt your vibe, you're a fellow human and you can do it too.
    - pletsch 6y ago
      I found one of the most important parts of K-12 is just learning to interact with people your own age + being able to work with people effectively. Are you concerned about this? Or do you have a way to effectively replace this?
      - toomuchtodo 6y ago
        We still socialize the kids outside of the house with playdates. Very important. Good point.
        scarface74 6y ago
        There are often group projects especially in high school. Play dates don’t teach how to work as a team. Even in elementary school it’s an important lesson to learn that you’re not a special snowflake and you don’t get all of the attention of superiors (teachers) to yourself.
  - twomoretime 6y ago
    >subject matter expert I think you're overestimating the amount of background knowledge the average tech worker might need to make up to teach elementary and high school subjects from text books. People TA entire college classes with the same amount (0) of experience.
    - scarface74 6y ago
      I took plenty of math classes in high school and college over two decades ago. I look at the average Trig problem and I didn’t know where to start helping my son. I ended up FaceTiming my mom who is a retired high school math teacher. I also have an aunt - a retired high school science teacher - I could call. But how many people have those resources at their beckon call?
      - twomoretime 6y ago
        >I look at the average Trig problem and I didn’t know where to start helping my son. Did you try reading the text book? It's made for children. It's high school math. I cannot understand this mindset but I fear it is extremely common and our society is in trouble for it.
        scarface74 6y ago
        Yes we are in trouble because we have this thing called specialization of labor. I learned how to develop software so I could live in the big house in the burbs with the good school system and took advantage of knowing the right people with the right set of skills to help me in other areas. I also shockingly don’t cut my own grass, do my own plumbing or fix my own cars.
        twomoretime 6y ago
        >I also shockingly don’t cut my own grass, do my own plumbing or fix my own cars. I do, and you should too. These things are not difficult to learn. Moreover they are good full body workouts and, speaking from experience with my father, can be excellent bonding experiences. But that's beside the point. You're relying far too much on others if you've lost the ability to spend 5-20 minutes reading one chapter in a children's textbook for a chance to educate and bond with your child. If you can learn a new programming language or framework without someone holding your hand, you can do this basic stuff. I think people either underestimate themselves or they're willing to go to great lengths to justify their laziness.
- take_a_breath 6y ago
  The 5 best high schools in Illinois are CPS schools [1]. The grade schools are hit and miss by neighborhood. There are great public magnet options if you can test-in or win a lottery. That’s not to say the system is great, but there is a lot more nuance than just declaring them “terrible”. Unless me or my spouse is a trained educator, I will trust the experts. Just like I do when I need medical, electrical or plumbing work done. [1] https://www.usnews.com/education/best-high-schools/illinois https://www.usnews.com/education/best-high-schools/illinois
  - toomuchtodo 6y ago
    I can do better on my own, my two cents, have to do what’s best for you. We sold our place in Cook County because the cost to benefit wasn’t there and property taxes will only rise (Chicago is almost $90 billion in debt per Moody’s, that’s $84k per household) while education keeps getting cut [1]. That’s a big gamble on top of your data about grade schools and magnet schools (my kids won't be in high school for more than half a decade). I’m having a coffee watching the sunrise over Appalachia while some poor sap is dragging themselves to the Blue line. I’m not the best teacher, but life is about trade offs. [1] https://www.google.com/search?q=cps+budget+cuts https://www.google.com/search?q=cps+budget+cuts
    - take_a_breath 6y ago
      You came off that “terrible schools” comment pretty quick. If you’re already going to home school it makes sense to keep taxes lower. But like I said, I’ll trust the experts who went to school and have ongoing training to educate my kids. That way I can focus on being a parent. The way you jump between Cook County and Chicago is also a strange way to measure things. You can live in Cook County and not be in Chicago proper. Cook County has places like Evanston, Hinsdale, Kenilworth, Glenview, and Oak Park with some of the best schools in the country.
      - toomuchtodo 6y ago
        I might have parsed it in my head differently, allow me to expound. I said, "CPS is terrible". You said that grade schools are hit or miss, but 5 of the top high schools in Illinois are in CPS, and that there are always magnet schools that require a lottery. In my mind, if you can't offer consistent quality across your territory (Chicago proper) and grade levels (K-12), you are a subpar institution, ie "terrible". There are pockets of success (the high schools you mention, and the luck of my kids getting into a magnet school) but one should not rely on luck for something as critical as their child's education. I bring up the dollars involved (cook county, property taxes, Chicago debt) because that is the fuel for the education engine, and that fuel is running out (pension obligations are protected by the Illinois constitution, education is not). Therefore, it is very likely the education experience in Chicago continues to decline. If it's already bad today (which it is objectively is, based on our subthread discussion and how weighted luck is as a component of your child's experience and success), why would one double down on it (accept fate and put your kids into CPS) while also being financially exposed and locked into the structural decline? Blindly trusting experts is a recipe for disaster. Experts don't always have your individual interests at heart. As an individual, it is your job to optimize for you and your family. I hope this clarifies my admittedly poorly constructed thesis further up the thread. I'm off to make more coffee.
naveen99 6y ago
unless reputable schools also start providing remote / online options also.
- amiga_500 6y ago
  many reputable schools are not about the education, they are about the connections, so I think this is not that likely.
caymanjim 6y ago
The more urban an area is, the worse the public schools are. You seem to be providing even more of a reason to flee cities.

closeparen 6y ago

Cities normally have advantages that offset those drawbacks: employers but also amenities, people to meet, events to attend. You trade off the quality of your private space for a richer public realm. But there is no public realm anymore. The biggest cities are as boring as the smallest towns.

take_a_breath 6y ago

Working remotely is one aspect. A counter aspect might be the lack of infrastructure in non-urban areas. Stare and local finances are getting strained. Without a large infrastructure bill, established cities are the only place to put people. Another aspect will be the high costs to build the new housing needed to support a trend like this. Those costs might not make non-urban areas much cheaper than using existing housing stock in large cities.

ghaff 6y ago
It's not a choice between Manhattan and the back of beyond though. Even many larger cities have exurb or even rural areas within about an hour drive where property prices, depending on the town, can be fairly affordable even if the downtown is not. It's hard to say how many people who migrated to truly urban living take this as a sign that they should at least move out to the suburbs (where their job is anyway in many cases). I do think that, for jobs that can be done remotely, a lot of companies are going to move away from everyone needing to be in the office all the time--though I suspect very few will go entirely remote.
- take_a_breath 6y ago
  This is kind of my point. Most places within an hour drive of established cities are pretty well settled. To accommodate new people towns either have to start building more housing (costs increase) or those people will have to move 1 hour and 15 minutes outside the city. Rinse and repeat until the formula doesn’t look as beneficial.
  - ghaff 6y ago
    On the other hand, the migration into cities that we hear so much about is mostly among a fairly narrow demographic (young and college educated) and isn't really a huge number in percentage terms. (And it's essentially just a reversal of a net outflow that took place over decades.) So I'm not really convinced that if some of the people who thought urban living was for them now have second thoughts, there will be a lot of problems accommodating them with housing. And again, a lot of the jobs are out in those suburbs anyway. A lot of the people who moved into cities did so because they wanted to, not because they could walk to their jobs from there.

mrfusion 6y ago

Don’t forget prolonged lockdowns as a new drawback.

kyleblarson 6y ago

I made this comment slightly selfishly because my wife and I left downtown Seattle about 10 years ago to live in a remote area in North Central Washington near the North Cascades National Park. We haven't looked back.

ashtonkem 6y ago

Only to the suburbs. The rural areas are looking worse off, due to underbuilt infrastructure.