9 ms·

NIH’s axing of bat coronavirus grant a ‘horrible precedent’

43 points by HarryHirsch 7y ago

foolzcrow 7y ago
You are a certified moron.
quadrangle 7y ago
How am I supposed to make sense of the conflicts-of-interest here? Obviously, this sort of scientific research has merit. Obviously, it isn't 100% free of risk. I haven't heard any claims of certainty around the origin of the current virus. How do we figure out the line between acknowledging that a hypothesis has inadequate evidence versus asserting it to be wrong because we don't like the ramifications or we don't like the overconfidence of people asserting too-quickly that it is true?
- eli_gottlieb 7y ago
  Usually, when you're doing good science and letting the evidence speak for itself, you don't terminate anyone's grants in the middle of the study without notice.
- hirundo 7y ago
  Weigh the importance of the research against the risk of the research process itself causing tens of thousands of deaths, and the confidence that the researchers have sufficiently protected against that risk. Anyone who has that kind of confidence in the Wuhan laboratory researchers is operating from a different set of facts than I am.
  - gumby 7y ago
    > Anyone who has that kind of confidence in the Wuhan laboratory researchers is operating from a different set of facts than I am. What set of facts do you have access to? I haven’t any reason to believe that lab is particularly bad, so would be glad to learn something additional.
    - daver00 7y ago
      State Department cables warned of safety issues at Wuhan lab studying bat coronaviruses https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/04/14/state-department-cables-warned-safety-issues-wuhan-lab-studying-bat-coronaviruses/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/04/14/state-dep...
      - gumby 7y ago
        Thanks, that’s useful. The WaPo should have done a lot better, specifically by asking the Galveston people what they thought: had anything gotten better in the last two years? Or worse? The cable said they were asking for assistance and in two yearsthey might well have received it — or not.
BearOso 7y ago
It's certainly possible it came from a lab. The problem here is political interest. Some on the left are downplaying the lab aspect in favor of a natural origin because some on the right are using the Chinese origin as a basis for racism. If it came from a lab in China, that doesn't make it a "Chinese" virus. Don't we have labs studying dangerous diseases in the US? People make mistakes. It's better to find the true cause and learn from it, human or not.
- gumby 7y ago
  > It's certainly possible it came from a lab. Quite a few significant geneticists consider it extremely unlikely: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9 Sure, it’s possible, but that probability appears to be extremely small. Edit: I just realized you might have meant “natural origins but escaped from the lab rather than being introduced directly from wild animals”. If that’s what you meant apologies that my reply is irrelevant. If you meant “deliberately engineered in a lab” then my reply stands. I don’t see science as a “left/right” issue.
  - cameldrv 7y ago
    What is the argument in that paper?
    - runawaybottle 7y ago
      Perhaps this bit: While the analyses above suggest that SARS-CoV-2 may bind human ACE2 with high affinity, computational analyses predict that the interaction is not ideal7 and that the RBD sequence is different from those shown in SARS-CoV to be optimal for receptor binding7,11. Thus, the high-affinity binding of the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein to human ACE2 is most likely the result of natural selection on a human or human-like ACE2 that permits another optimal binding solution to arise. This is strong evidence that SARS-CoV-2 is not the product of purposeful manipulation. But again, the poster clarified this only addresses the engineering of the virus, not the the other theories that center around lax precautions at the lab. So, these threads do devolve into a predictable pattern, but I’m compelled to bring up instances where viruses escaped from Chinese labs before: https://www.the-scientist.com/news-analysis/sars-escaped-beijing-lab-twice-50137/amp https://www.the-scientist.com/news-analysis/sars-escaped-bei... I believe there were a few more instances too (not mentioned in the article).
gregwebs 7y ago
What's missing in this article but well reported on in Newsweek [1] is that these studies included "gain of function" research, which means attempts to make viruses human transmissible. This type of research is extremely dangerous and very controversial within the scientific community and that portion should certainly be stopped. Almost all of the attention has been focused on the lab receiving these grants. However, that lab is miles away from the initial outbreak and there's another lab that's a block away from the Wuhan seafood market that also does bat research (but not gain of function). This lab is also adjacent to the hospital that dealt with initial outbreak. This was pointed out by Chinese researchers in a preprint that was quickly taken down [2]. 1: https://www.newsweek.com/dr-fauci-backed-controversial-wuhan-lab-millions-us-dollars-risky-coronavirus-research-1500741 https://www.newsweek.com/dr-fauci-backed-controversial-wuhan... 2: The possible origins of 2019-nCoV coronavirus 10.13140/RG.2.2.21799.29601 https://web.archive.org/web/20200214144447/https://www.researchgate.net/publication/339070128_The_possible_origins_of_2019-nCoV_coronavirus https://web.archive.org/web/20200214144447/https://www.resea...
pacala 7y ago
Just wow. We have a bunch of guys knowingly playing with fire. Then out of nowhere a major inferno starts within spitting distance from their playground. And the US tax payers have the moral duty to fund foreign nationals to enact this charade in a foreign country?
- petre 7y ago
  It doesn't matter much where it originated now, the lab or the market. US tax payers should not fund such research. China tried to cover up the incident and has failed to stop the virus escape to other countries. They should be held accountable for this. The US is one of the few countries in the position to issue punitive measures. Others may follow. I am going to refrain from buying goods from the PRC after this.
  - gregwebs 7y ago
    I disagree with this point of view. It only encourages covering things up. The US frequently has it's own lab incidents including even with anthrax (this was reported in some of the Newsweek articles). There's no indication of carelessness or violations of lab procedures in the Chinese labs yet. This could have happened anywhere in the world. The problem now is that there is no real investigation into the true source of the outbreak. That is all we should be demanding right now. And if it turns out to have escaped from the lab that does not imply a need for punishment beyond perhaps the lab director and those in an oversight position. What is more important is probably to recognize how dangerous it is to work with bats and that much greater safety precautions be taken with them even when not working on gain of function research. And the entire world needs to learn how to research infectious diseases in a safer way that doesn't create outbreaks.
    - petre 7y ago
      Maybe you're right, but what about the CCP culture of covering things up and finding scapegoats? Do you trust the CCP to conduct this investigation? Because I do not. And I doubt they would let a board of international experts conduct it and cooperate with them. They'll just cover things up like they're used to, punish some innocent people for spreading rumors or alleged negligence or who knows what. Let's not forget that he CCP is a totalitarian state actor which throws innocent people in reeducation camps, harvests organs from Falun Gong practitioners and sells them abroad, abducts people critical of its regime, claims that Taiwan is part if China etc. The only thing we can do is handle it like we handle Iran or North Korea. They only get a free pass because they're the PRC and we build stuff cheaply there with their blessing and the blood sweat and tears of Chinese people working in subhuman conditions.
ficklepickle 7y ago
Here is an example of engineering SARS to be deadlier in 2015[0]. [0] https://www.nature.com/articles/nm.3985 https://www.nature.com/articles/nm.3985
- deleted 7y ago
  [deleted]

43 points by HarryHirsch 7y ago

You are a certified moron.

How am I supposed to make sense of the conflicts-of-interest here? Obviously, this sort of scientific research has merit. Obviously, it isn't 100% free of risk. I haven't heard any claims of certainty around the origin of the current virus. How do we figure out the line between acknowledging that a hypothesis has inadequate evidence versus asserting it to be wrong because we don't like the ramifications or we don't like the overconfidence of people asserting too-quickly that it is true?

eli_gottlieb 7y ago
Usually, when you're doing good science and letting the evidence speak for itself, you don't terminate anyone's grants in the middle of the study without notice.
hirundo 7y ago
Weigh the importance of the research against the risk of the research process itself causing tens of thousands of deaths, and the confidence that the researchers have sufficiently protected against that risk. Anyone who has that kind of confidence in the Wuhan laboratory researchers is operating from a different set of facts than I am.
- gumby 7y ago
  > Anyone who has that kind of confidence in the Wuhan laboratory researchers is operating from a different set of facts than I am. What set of facts do you have access to? I haven’t any reason to believe that lab is particularly bad, so would be glad to learn something additional.
  - daver00 7y ago
    State Department cables warned of safety issues at Wuhan lab studying bat coronaviruses https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/04/14/state-department-cables-warned-safety-issues-wuhan-lab-studying-bat-coronaviruses/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/04/14/state-dep...
    - gumby 7y ago
      Thanks, that’s useful. The WaPo should have done a lot better, specifically by asking the Galveston people what they thought: had anything gotten better in the last two years? Or worse? The cable said they were asking for assistance and in two yearsthey might well have received it — or not.

BearOso 7y ago

It's certainly possible it came from a lab. The problem here is political interest. Some on the left are downplaying the lab aspect in favor of a natural origin because some on the right are using the Chinese origin as a basis for racism. If it came from a lab in China, that doesn't make it a "Chinese" virus. Don't we have labs studying dangerous diseases in the US? People make mistakes. It's better to find the true cause and learn from it, human or not.

gumby 7y ago
> It's certainly possible it came from a lab. Quite a few significant geneticists consider it extremely unlikely: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9 Sure, it’s possible, but that probability appears to be extremely small. Edit: I just realized you might have meant “natural origins but escaped from the lab rather than being introduced directly from wild animals”. If that’s what you meant apologies that my reply is irrelevant. If you meant “deliberately engineered in a lab” then my reply stands. I don’t see science as a “left/right” issue.
- cameldrv 7y ago
  What is the argument in that paper?
  - runawaybottle 7y ago
    Perhaps this bit: While the analyses above suggest that SARS-CoV-2 may bind human ACE2 with high affinity, computational analyses predict that the interaction is not ideal7 and that the RBD sequence is different from those shown in SARS-CoV to be optimal for receptor binding7,11. Thus, the high-affinity binding of the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein to human ACE2 is most likely the result of natural selection on a human or human-like ACE2 that permits another optimal binding solution to arise. This is strong evidence that SARS-CoV-2 is not the product of purposeful manipulation. But again, the poster clarified this only addresses the engineering of the virus, not the the other theories that center around lax precautions at the lab. So, these threads do devolve into a predictable pattern, but I’m compelled to bring up instances where viruses escaped from Chinese labs before: https://www.the-scientist.com/news-analysis/sars-escaped-beijing-lab-twice-50137/amp https://www.the-scientist.com/news-analysis/sars-escaped-bei... I believe there were a few more instances too (not mentioned in the article).

gregwebs 7y ago

What's missing in this article but well reported on in Newsweek [1] is that these studies included "gain of function" research, which means attempts to make viruses human transmissible. This type of research is extremely dangerous and very controversial within the scientific community and that portion should certainly be stopped. Almost all of the attention has been focused on the lab receiving these grants. However, that lab is miles away from the initial outbreak and there's another lab that's a block away from the Wuhan seafood market that also does bat research (but not gain of function). This lab is also adjacent to the hospital that dealt with initial outbreak. This was pointed out by Chinese researchers in a preprint that was quickly taken down [2]. 1: https://www.newsweek.com/dr-fauci-backed-controversial-wuhan-lab-millions-us-dollars-risky-coronavirus-research-1500741 https://www.newsweek.com/dr-fauci-backed-controversial-wuhan... 2: The possible origins of 2019-nCoV coronavirus 10.13140/RG.2.2.21799.29601 https://web.archive.org/web/20200214144447/https://www.researchgate.net/publication/339070128_The_possible_origins_of_2019-nCoV_coronavirus https://web.archive.org/web/20200214144447/https://www.resea...

pacala 7y ago

Just wow. We have a bunch of guys knowingly playing with fire. Then out of nowhere a major inferno starts within spitting distance from their playground. And the US tax payers have the moral duty to fund foreign nationals to enact this charade in a foreign country?

petre 7y ago
It doesn't matter much where it originated now, the lab or the market. US tax payers should not fund such research. China tried to cover up the incident and has failed to stop the virus escape to other countries. They should be held accountable for this. The US is one of the few countries in the position to issue punitive measures. Others may follow. I am going to refrain from buying goods from the PRC after this.
- gregwebs 7y ago
  I disagree with this point of view. It only encourages covering things up. The US frequently has it's own lab incidents including even with anthrax (this was reported in some of the Newsweek articles). There's no indication of carelessness or violations of lab procedures in the Chinese labs yet. This could have happened anywhere in the world. The problem now is that there is no real investigation into the true source of the outbreak. That is all we should be demanding right now. And if it turns out to have escaped from the lab that does not imply a need for punishment beyond perhaps the lab director and those in an oversight position. What is more important is probably to recognize how dangerous it is to work with bats and that much greater safety precautions be taken with them even when not working on gain of function research. And the entire world needs to learn how to research infectious diseases in a safer way that doesn't create outbreaks.
  - petre 7y ago
    Maybe you're right, but what about the CCP culture of covering things up and finding scapegoats? Do you trust the CCP to conduct this investigation? Because I do not. And I doubt they would let a board of international experts conduct it and cooperate with them. They'll just cover things up like they're used to, punish some innocent people for spreading rumors or alleged negligence or who knows what. Let's not forget that he CCP is a totalitarian state actor which throws innocent people in reeducation camps, harvests organs from Falun Gong practitioners and sells them abroad, abducts people critical of its regime, claims that Taiwan is part if China etc. The only thing we can do is handle it like we handle Iran or North Korea. They only get a free pass because they're the PRC and we build stuff cheaply there with their blessing and the blood sweat and tears of Chinese people working in subhuman conditions.

ficklepickle 7y ago

Here is an example of engineering SARS to be deadlier in 2015[0]. [0] https://www.nature.com/articles/nm.3985 https://www.nature.com/articles/nm.3985

deleted 7y ago
[deleted]