3 ms·

Despite the oddly enjoyable humor from the situation, performing an analysis like this is important to do because the vast majority of finance headlines are jus

by ve55 6y ago

Despite the oddly enjoyable humor from the situation, performing an analysis like this is important to do because the vast majority of finance headlines are just instantly made up after something occurs, and they often mistakenly imply causality when there is no evidence of it, or sometimes even evidence again it.

2019-nCoV 6y ago
Don't let the Bayesian rhetoric deceive you — this analysis succumbs to the same pitfalls of mistakenly implying causality.
- ve55 6y ago
  That's true, there's a lot lacking here, including looking at TSLA's volatility. But, it's much better than providing zero evidence imo.
clairity 6y ago
it's hilarious, not because musk shot himself in the foot (in the long-run he likely didn't), but because he tweaked the whole gambling industry otherwise known as the stock market, day traders and algorithms alike, in 7 words (9 actually, but whatevs) on a popularity contest, aka social, network. he's too cool for school.
- Melting_Harps 6y ago
  > it's hilarious, not because musk shot himself in the foot (in the long-run he likely didn't), but because he tweaked the whole gambling industry otherwise known as the stock market, day traders and algorithms alike, in 7 words (9 actually, but whatevs) on a popularity contest, aka social, network. he's too cool for school. I hope he burned a bunch of the WSB troll's positions they paid with their stimulus money with that tweet. I'm going to go check the subreddit now to see the dismay and Robinhood screen caps in all red now [1] [2]. I also find it amusing, but then again I also found the 'Bankwapt' tweet funny, too. Anyone who bought that dip and rode it to 9XX did also. 1: https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/gbod91/too_high_imo/ https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/gbod91/too_... 2 https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/gbsjhe/didnt_trust_my_vibe_and_paid_for_it_dearly/ https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/gbsjhe/didn...
- maest 6y ago
  First of all, for every buyer there's a seller, so for each person that lost money on Tesla, somebody made money (relative to the benchmark). Secondly, I don't know why you think only "day traders and algorithms" were affected by this tweet. I assure you, retail passive money (e.g. pension funds) also have exposure to Tesla. Thirdly, why so gleeful about someone's perceived loss?
  - clairity 6y ago
    1) there are winners and losers in gambling too. 99.9% of trades are gambles, not value investments. you can more charitably call it providing liquidity to the value investor, but that's only true of the better known ~20% of equities. 2) retail passive funds are long-term investors, and pricing blips like this will be washed away in the long run. and it's likely a tiny exposure relative to the overall size of the fund. 3) it's an ingenious and mirthful move to target the greedy vs. true investors. if there aren't negative repercussions to the gambling, you'd lose the drive to optimize mispricings and arbitrage opportunities out of the system. edit: note that the likely purpose of opening up the market to "unsophisticated" investors is to provide added volume and liquidity to "sophisticated" investors, not to provide economic opportunities to the unsophisticated.

by ve55 6y ago

2019-nCoV 6y ago

Don't let the Bayesian rhetoric deceive you — this analysis succumbs to the same pitfalls of mistakenly implying causality.

ve55 6y ago
That's true, there's a lot lacking here, including looking at TSLA's volatility. But, it's much better than providing zero evidence imo.

clairity 6y ago

it's hilarious, not because musk shot himself in the foot (in the long-run he likely didn't), but because he tweaked the whole gambling industry otherwise known as the stock market, day traders and algorithms alike, in 7 words (9 actually, but whatevs) on a popularity contest, aka social, network. he's too cool for school.

Melting_Harps 6y ago
> it's hilarious, not because musk shot himself in the foot (in the long-run he likely didn't), but because he tweaked the whole gambling industry otherwise known as the stock market, day traders and algorithms alike, in 7 words (9 actually, but whatevs) on a popularity contest, aka social, network. he's too cool for school. I hope he burned a bunch of the WSB troll's positions they paid with their stimulus money with that tweet. I'm going to go check the subreddit now to see the dismay and Robinhood screen caps in all red now [1] [2]. I also find it amusing, but then again I also found the 'Bankwapt' tweet funny, too. Anyone who bought that dip and rode it to 9XX did also. 1: https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/gbod91/too_high_imo/ https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/gbod91/too_... 2 https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/gbsjhe/didnt_trust_my_vibe_and_paid_for_it_dearly/ https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/gbsjhe/didn...
maest 6y ago
First of all, for every buyer there's a seller, so for each person that lost money on Tesla, somebody made money (relative to the benchmark). Secondly, I don't know why you think only "day traders and algorithms" were affected by this tweet. I assure you, retail passive money (e.g. pension funds) also have exposure to Tesla. Thirdly, why so gleeful about someone's perceived loss?
- clairity 6y ago
  1) there are winners and losers in gambling too. 99.9% of trades are gambles, not value investments. you can more charitably call it providing liquidity to the value investor, but that's only true of the better known ~20% of equities. 2) retail passive funds are long-term investors, and pricing blips like this will be washed away in the long run. and it's likely a tiny exposure relative to the overall size of the fund. 3) it's an ingenious and mirthful move to target the greedy vs. true investors. if there aren't negative repercussions to the gambling, you'd lose the drive to optimize mispricings and arbitrage opportunities out of the system. edit: note that the likely purpose of opening up the market to "unsophisticated" investors is to provide added volume and liquidity to "sophisticated" investors, not to provide economic opportunities to the unsophisticated.