You're almost certainly right. Although: I don't see the tweets as a sort of sociopathic "if I use my bullhorn to influence public behavior there is a .24% chan

You're almost certainly right. Although: I don't see the tweets as a sort of sociopathic "if I use my bullhorn to influence public behavior there is a .24% chance that this will increase my net worth therefore it's the optimal choice" way. More like, he really is under a tremendous amount of financial stress, and twitter sometimes tempts him by being a place that will listen, no matter what, good and bad. That's one of the few things I actually like about twitter. That by the sheer temptation of it, it worms its way past the PR teams and the polished sheen and gives the raw thoughts of people in positions of power.