5 ms·
20 year forward looking? Maybe across the market and across broad indexes & ETFs, but there is no way you can tell me that they're looking that far ahead intel
by blaser-waffle 7y ago
20 year forward looking? Maybe across the market and across broad indexes & ETFs, but there is no way you can tell me that they're looking that far ahead intelligently -- one only needs to look at 2008, or the huge volatility over the last couple months.
Oil futures, for example, are only going out about 2-5 years.
We knew there was going to be wicked unemployment down the line in Feb/March. Now it's here and no one is surprised -- and that was baked into the stock price, on top of Federal cash bailouts that make the unemployment numbers less relevant.
- koheripbal 7y agoOil futures go out to exactly the expiration date of the futures contract. Equity shares go out as far as you like. What makes the later years worth less is the discount you put on future cash - according to the time-value money principle. ie. future years are discounted proportionately dependent upon the expected inflation/discount rate. So yeah, 20 years is normal.