4 ms·

“I’m counting” deaths by the sources I linked. The article is figuring 9x-44x worse by taking the worst week of covid and comparing to same week of seasonal fl

“I’m counting” deaths by the sources I linked. The article is figuring 9x-44x worse by taking the worst week of covid and comparing to same week of seasonal flu. I’ll rephrase my original downvoted question, do you think there will be 10-30* million deaths of covid this year? If not - then the 9x-44x is total bullshit.

soperj 6y ago
You likely won't because of the actions people are taking, so there won't be as many people who actually get the disease. There were nearly 200 thousand confirmed deaths from Covid-19 worldwide in April, and that's with much of the world under lockdown. There would be many many more without the lockdown.
- deleted 6y ago
  [deleted]
- SlowRobotAhead 6y ago
  Can you find a single source anywhere that modeled or even causally expected 10 to 30 million deaths without lockdown? Edit: can’t reply directly, but I’d like to see something more than an alarmist article from March 8th. Maybe a recent study? Maybe ANY projection that supports the claim? On March 8th we didn’t know most people that get it will remain asymptomatic.
  - soperj 6y ago
    https://www.news.com.au/technology/public-health-expert-warns-coronavirus-could-infect-60-per-cent-of-world-population/news-story/d71b9792e47df37d44df03bbb8b3f8e3 https://www.news.com.au/technology/public-health-expert-warn... If you expect 60% of the world to get it and it has a 1% fatality rate that's 46.8 million deaths. edit:Professor Gabriel Leung, chair of public health medicine at Hong Kong University, is an expert on coronavirus epidemics and played a key role during the SARS outbreak in 2002 and 2003. It wasn't an alarmist article, it's an article about a projection by Professor Gabriel Leung. I'm going to be honest, at this point I don't think you're going to accept anything, and I don't feel like wasting my time.
    - SlowRobotAhead 6y ago
      > at this point I don't think you're going to accept anything Oh, no, don’t make that mistake. I am definitely open minded. I can no more predict the future than you. I just want to confirm you think that there will be 10-30 million Covid19 deaths this year based on a projection a guy made on March 8th and then taking the worst/peak week of covid and extrapolating that out. That is your position, correct?
      - soperj 6y ago
        It really doesn't matter what my position is. I'm nobody. I've looked at what people who do have actual knowledge on the subject and formed my opinion on the matter, but my opinion is quite literally not relevant to anyone but myself.

soperj 6y ago

You likely won't because of the actions people are taking, so there won't be as many people who actually get the disease. There were nearly 200 thousand confirmed deaths from Covid-19 worldwide in April, and that's with much of the world under lockdown. There would be many many more without the lockdown.

deleted 6y ago
[deleted]
SlowRobotAhead 6y ago
Can you find a single source anywhere that modeled or even causally expected 10 to 30 million deaths without lockdown? Edit: can’t reply directly, but I’d like to see something more than an alarmist article from March 8th. Maybe a recent study? Maybe ANY projection that supports the claim? On March 8th we didn’t know most people that get it will remain asymptomatic.
- soperj 6y ago
  https://www.news.com.au/technology/public-health-expert-warns-coronavirus-could-infect-60-per-cent-of-world-population/news-story/d71b9792e47df37d44df03bbb8b3f8e3 https://www.news.com.au/technology/public-health-expert-warn... If you expect 60% of the world to get it and it has a 1% fatality rate that's 46.8 million deaths. edit:Professor Gabriel Leung, chair of public health medicine at Hong Kong University, is an expert on coronavirus epidemics and played a key role during the SARS outbreak in 2002 and 2003. It wasn't an alarmist article, it's an article about a projection by Professor Gabriel Leung. I'm going to be honest, at this point I don't think you're going to accept anything, and I don't feel like wasting my time.
  - SlowRobotAhead 6y ago
    > at this point I don't think you're going to accept anything Oh, no, don’t make that mistake. I am definitely open minded. I can no more predict the future than you. I just want to confirm you think that there will be 10-30 million Covid19 deaths this year based on a projection a guy made on March 8th and then taking the worst/peak week of covid and extrapolating that out. That is your position, correct?
    - soperj 6y ago
      It really doesn't matter what my position is. I'm nobody. I've looked at what people who do have actual knowledge on the subject and formed my opinion on the matter, but my opinion is quite literally not relevant to anyone but myself.