4 ms·
The question I have yet to see posed is "How would society be experiencing the common flu if it had never existed before and this is the first time it jumps to
by malandrew 6y ago
The question I have yet to see posed is "How would society be experiencing the common flu if it had never existed before and this is the first time it jumps to humans?"
The first year you see an airborne transmissible disease is likely to be the worst regardless of the disease. The big problem I see is that we're comparing the common flu in its herd immunity steady state to the coronavirus in its first year.
Once coronavirus settles into its steady state, we will be able to compare it to the flu, apples to apples.
That being said, assuming the flu and coronavirus at steady state is approximately comparable, would it justified to react to the flu in its first year the same way we're reacting to the coronavirus in its first year? If we know there will be a modest spike in the first year that mostly claims the infirm and becoming endemic is unavoidable, is it worth doing the damage we're doing to the economy.
That this is going to become endemic and likely reach steady state in a year or two (possibly longer depending on how long we retard reaching that point with lockdowns varying from geography to geography) is at this point a foregone conclusion because not every country has the natural borders of New Zealand and can completely kill this off. It will bounce back and forth between the northern and southern hemisphere indefinitely at this point until herd immunity.
- gpderetta 6y agoA case of deadly flu with little population resistance would like the Spanish flu pandemic. Yes, I would say that the an extraordinary reaction would be entirely appropriate.
- malandrew 6y agoAt this point, the disease becoming endemic is all but guaranteed, so we're just delaying the inevitable at great economic cost. The best case scenario is to ride the healthcare system capacity threshold while getting the economy moving again so there aren't excess deaths beyond those that would have been claimed sooner or later. The people arguing for waiting for a vaccine simply don't understand how long that likely to take. It's an unreasonable expectation to keep the world shut down until a vaccine is available as it will cause far more damage than the virus is liable to cause.