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> I found that there so far have been covid 234,133 deaths [0] and season flu can cause up to 646,000 deaths [1]. How are you counting covid-19 deaths? You're

by DanBC 7y ago

> I found that there so far have been covid 234,133 deaths [0] and season flu can cause up to 646,000 deaths [1]. How are you counting covid-19 deaths? You're counting the people who had a test, were confirmed positive for covid-19, who then died. How are you counting flu deaths? You're looking at people who had a test and were positive for flu, but you're also including people who had flu like symptoms but no test. And you're looking at excess mortality and seeing what strains of flu were circulating. And you plug all this into a formula and a number drops out the other end. If you only count confirmed deaths you'll see much larger numbers for covid-19 deaths. If you use the same excess mortality method you'd again see much larger figure for covid-19 deaths. But this way of comparing confirmed covid-19 deaths against statistical modelling for flu gives a misleading impression: that flu and covid are mostly similar. They're really not, many more people are dying from covid-19.

SlowRobotAhead 7y ago
“I’m counting” deaths by the sources I linked. The article is figuring 9x-44x worse by taking the worst week of covid and comparing to same week of seasonal flu. I’ll rephrase my original downvoted question, do you think there will be 10-30* million deaths of covid this year? If not - then the 9x-44x is total bullshit.
- soperj 7y ago
  You likely won't because of the actions people are taking, so there won't be as many people who actually get the disease. There were nearly 200 thousand confirmed deaths from Covid-19 worldwide in April, and that's with much of the world under lockdown. There would be many many more without the lockdown.
  - deleted 7y ago
    [deleted]
  - SlowRobotAhead 7y ago
    Can you find a single source anywhere that modeled or even causally expected 10 to 30 million deaths without lockdown? Edit: can’t reply directly, but I’d like to see something more than an alarmist article from March 8th. Maybe a recent study? Maybe ANY projection that supports the claim? On March 8th we didn’t know most people that get it will remain asymptomatic.
    - soperj 7y ago
      https://www.news.com.au/technology/public-health-expert-warns-coronavirus-could-infect-60-per-cent-of-world-population/news-story/d71b9792e47df37d44df03bbb8b3f8e3 https://www.news.com.au/technology/public-health-expert-warn... If you expect 60% of the world to get it and it has a 1% fatality rate that's 46.8 million deaths. edit:Professor Gabriel Leung, chair of public health medicine at Hong Kong University, is an expert on coronavirus epidemics and played a key role during the SARS outbreak in 2002 and 2003. It wasn't an alarmist article, it's an article about a projection by Professor Gabriel Leung. I'm going to be honest, at this point I don't think you're going to accept anything, and I don't feel like wasting my time.
      - SlowRobotAhead 7y ago
        > at this point I don't think you're going to accept anything Oh, no, don’t make that mistake. I am definitely open minded. I can no more predict the future than you. I just want to confirm you think that there will be 10-30 million Covid19 deaths this year based on a projection a guy made on March 8th and then taking the worst/peak week of covid and extrapolating that out. That is your position, correct?
        soperj 7y ago
        It really doesn't matter what my position is. I'm nobody. I've looked at what people who do have actual knowledge on the subject and formed my opinion on the matter, but my opinion is quite literally not relevant to anyone but myself.

by DanBC 7y ago

SlowRobotAhead 7y ago

“I’m counting” deaths by the sources I linked. The article is figuring 9x-44x worse by taking the worst week of covid and comparing to same week of seasonal flu. I’ll rephrase my original downvoted question, do you think there will be 10-30* million deaths of covid this year? If not - then the 9x-44x is total bullshit.

soperj 7y ago
You likely won't because of the actions people are taking, so there won't be as many people who actually get the disease. There were nearly 200 thousand confirmed deaths from Covid-19 worldwide in April, and that's with much of the world under lockdown. There would be many many more without the lockdown.
- deleted 7y ago
  [deleted]
- SlowRobotAhead 7y ago
  Can you find a single source anywhere that modeled or even causally expected 10 to 30 million deaths without lockdown? Edit: can’t reply directly, but I’d like to see something more than an alarmist article from March 8th. Maybe a recent study? Maybe ANY projection that supports the claim? On March 8th we didn’t know most people that get it will remain asymptomatic.
  - soperj 7y ago
    https://www.news.com.au/technology/public-health-expert-warns-coronavirus-could-infect-60-per-cent-of-world-population/news-story/d71b9792e47df37d44df03bbb8b3f8e3 https://www.news.com.au/technology/public-health-expert-warn... If you expect 60% of the world to get it and it has a 1% fatality rate that's 46.8 million deaths. edit:Professor Gabriel Leung, chair of public health medicine at Hong Kong University, is an expert on coronavirus epidemics and played a key role during the SARS outbreak in 2002 and 2003. It wasn't an alarmist article, it's an article about a projection by Professor Gabriel Leung. I'm going to be honest, at this point I don't think you're going to accept anything, and I don't feel like wasting my time.
    - SlowRobotAhead 7y ago
      > at this point I don't think you're going to accept anything Oh, no, don’t make that mistake. I am definitely open minded. I can no more predict the future than you. I just want to confirm you think that there will be 10-30 million Covid19 deaths this year based on a projection a guy made on March 8th and then taking the worst/peak week of covid and extrapolating that out. That is your position, correct?
      - soperj 7y ago
        It really doesn't matter what my position is. I'm nobody. I've looked at what people who do have actual knowledge on the subject and formed my opinion on the matter, but my opinion is quite literally not relevant to anyone but myself.