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> If the growth is not exponential anymore Ok so if what happens to this theory if the growth in not exponential in GA next two weeks.
by dominotw 7y ago
> If the growth is not exponential anymore
Ok so if what happens to this theory if the growth in not exponential in GA next two weeks.
- ceejayoz 7y agoLifting of the order and people actually going back to normal are very different things. Restaurant bookings tanked before the lockdown orders. If enough Georgians go "nope, not going out, not safe" the lockdown is de-facto still in place, even without a legal order. (There are also other confounding factors, like people wearing masks, washing hands more often, etc.)
- dominotw 7y ago> even without a legal order. If it remains linear in atlanta, would that be an argument for lifting legal order here in chicago ?
- ceejayoz 7y agoMaybe. My concern would be the lagging nature of the indicator. If Georgians start loosening up on self-imposed restrictions after a week or two of being cautious, and case numbers lag by two weeks or so, we're talking about a month or more before we get warning signs that Georgia might wind up a "don't do this" case study. It is my hope that Georgia demonstrates "wear a mask and be careful" can work to stem the spread of the virus and we can all relax a bit. I don't know how likely that is.
- bonzini 7y agoJust like any other falsifiable theory, you look at new data and learn something new. It depends on that new data: has growth slowed down further, has it stabilized, is it linear but with a higher slope, etc.