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No, I don’t think I am missing that. Which is why I used those words. I have no doubt covid is worse than flu and have no issue with being more cautious than
by SlowRobotAhead 6y ago
No, I don’t think I am missing that. Which is why I used those words.
I have no doubt covid is worse than flu and have no issue with being more cautious than reckless.
But if you can find me a model that shows we’re no where near peak deaths and are still looking to 9 to 44 times more, I’d like to see that.
Edit: anyone? Sources? Models?
- simonh 6y agoThe finding that in like periods in April this year compared to previous years Covid-19 has killed from 9 to 44 times as many people is a historical fact, not a projection. As for peak deaths, the number of people dying each day is still going up. We don’t need a fancy statistical model to tell us this means we haven’t reached peak deaths yet.
- SlowRobotAhead 6y agoDo you think it’s legitimate to take covid single worst week, compare to a week of flu and extrapolate our 9 to 44x worse? Do you think there will be 10-30 million covid deaths this year?
- deleted 6y ago[deleted]
- simonh 6y agoIt's not comparing it to 'a' week of flu, it's comparing it to the single worst week of flu in the last 7 years. I think it's one useful and relevant data point to see how Covid-19 deaths compare to flu, which of course is far from telling the whole story. I have no idea what the world is going to do over the next 8 months, or what effect it's going to have. Do you?