5 ms·

But let's compare them anyway. "we find that the novel coronavirus killed between 9.5 and 44 times more people than seasonal flu." That was easy wasn't it.

bmat 6y ago
The point was comparing reported COVID deaths to statistically extrapolated flu deaths is apples to oranges. What you quoted was a comparison of reported deaths to reported deaths.
- lemagedurage 6y ago
  "Comparing reported COVID deaths to statistically extrapolated flu deaths is apples to oranges" I suppose this would be a better title of the article.
- fullshark 6y ago
  I think comparing just reported deaths is probably even worse, the rate of undercounting of flu deaths and undercounting of covid deaths (in a pandemic with a ton of testing / heightened observation) is not going to be comparable.
  - bmat 6y ago
    Definitely. My takeaway is we should be skeptical of any comparison between COVID and flu statistics.
SlowRobotAhead 6y ago
>That was easy wasn't it. Was it? I don’t get it. I found that there so far have been covid 234,133 deaths [0] and season flu can cause up to 646,000 deaths [1]. So I’m not seeing 9x to 44x by any reasonable metric or projection. What am I missing? If 9 to 44x is possible, there need to be models that would show that. Does anyone have a model that shows we aren’t even remotely near peak deaths? Even if the article is right and seasonal flu was vastly over reported by the CDC as a “for your own good” tactic, I’m STILL not seeing 9x to 44x. [0] https://www.statista.com/statistics/1087466/covid19-cases-recoveries-deaths-worldwide/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/1087466/covid19-cases-re... [1] https://www.medicinenet.com/script/main/art.asp?articlekey=208914 https://www.medicinenet.com/script/main/art.asp?articlekey=2... EDIT: Article uses worst week covid compared to worst week flu... talk about Apples to Oranges!?
- ceejayoz 6y ago
  > What am I missing? It's right there in your comment: > so far (Also, the rest of the paragraph that 9-44x number comes from:) > To do this, we have to compare counted deaths to counted deaths, not counted deaths to wildly inflated statistical estimates. If we compare, for instance, the number of people who died in the United States from COVID-19 in the second full week of April to the number of people who died from influenza during the worst week of the past seven flu seasons (as reported to the CDC), we find that the novel coronavirus killed between 9.5 and 44 times more people than seasonal flu.
  - SlowRobotAhead 6y ago
    No, I don’t think I am missing that. Which is why I used those words. I have no doubt covid is worse than flu and have no issue with being more cautious than reckless. But if you can find me a model that shows we’re no where near peak deaths and are still looking to 9 to 44 times more, I’d like to see that. Edit: anyone? Sources? Models?
    - simonh 6y ago
      The finding that in like periods in April this year compared to previous years Covid-19 has killed from 9 to 44 times as many people is a historical fact, not a projection. As for peak deaths, the number of people dying each day is still going up. We don’t need a fancy statistical model to tell us this means we haven’t reached peak deaths yet.
      - SlowRobotAhead 6y ago
        Do you think it’s legitimate to take covid single worst week, compare to a week of flu and extrapolate our 9 to 44x worse? Do you think there will be 10-30 million covid deaths this year?
        deleted 6y ago
        [deleted]

bmat 6y ago

The point was comparing reported COVID deaths to statistically extrapolated flu deaths is apples to oranges. What you quoted was a comparison of reported deaths to reported deaths.

lemagedurage 6y ago
"Comparing reported COVID deaths to statistically extrapolated flu deaths is apples to oranges" I suppose this would be a better title of the article.
fullshark 6y ago
I think comparing just reported deaths is probably even worse, the rate of undercounting of flu deaths and undercounting of covid deaths (in a pandemic with a ton of testing / heightened observation) is not going to be comparable.
- bmat 6y ago
  Definitely. My takeaway is we should be skeptical of any comparison between COVID and flu statistics.

SlowRobotAhead 6y ago

>That was easy wasn't it. Was it? I don’t get it. I found that there so far have been covid 234,133 deaths [0] and season flu can cause up to 646,000 deaths [1]. So I’m not seeing 9x to 44x by any reasonable metric or projection. What am I missing? If 9 to 44x is possible, there need to be models that would show that. Does anyone have a model that shows we aren’t even remotely near peak deaths? Even if the article is right and seasonal flu was vastly over reported by the CDC as a “for your own good” tactic, I’m STILL not seeing 9x to 44x. [0] https://www.statista.com/statistics/1087466/covid19-cases-recoveries-deaths-worldwide/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/1087466/covid19-cases-re... [1] https://www.medicinenet.com/script/main/art.asp?articlekey=208914 https://www.medicinenet.com/script/main/art.asp?articlekey=2... EDIT: Article uses worst week covid compared to worst week flu... talk about Apples to Oranges!?

ceejayoz 6y ago
> What am I missing? It's right there in your comment: > so far (Also, the rest of the paragraph that 9-44x number comes from:) > To do this, we have to compare counted deaths to counted deaths, not counted deaths to wildly inflated statistical estimates. If we compare, for instance, the number of people who died in the United States from COVID-19 in the second full week of April to the number of people who died from influenza during the worst week of the past seven flu seasons (as reported to the CDC), we find that the novel coronavirus killed between 9.5 and 44 times more people than seasonal flu.
- SlowRobotAhead 6y ago
  No, I don’t think I am missing that. Which is why I used those words. I have no doubt covid is worse than flu and have no issue with being more cautious than reckless. But if you can find me a model that shows we’re no where near peak deaths and are still looking to 9 to 44 times more, I’d like to see that. Edit: anyone? Sources? Models?
  - simonh 6y ago
    The finding that in like periods in April this year compared to previous years Covid-19 has killed from 9 to 44 times as many people is a historical fact, not a projection. As for peak deaths, the number of people dying each day is still going up. We don’t need a fancy statistical model to tell us this means we haven’t reached peak deaths yet.
    - SlowRobotAhead 6y ago
      Do you think it’s legitimate to take covid single worst week, compare to a week of flu and extrapolate our 9 to 44x worse? Do you think there will be 10-30 million covid deaths this year?
      - deleted 6y ago
        [deleted]