My 2c as an active trader: There’s a lot of speculation, and I love it. Keeping an open mind is a necessity. Think of from the perspective of the funds manag

My 2c as an active trader: There’s a lot of speculation, and I love it. Keeping an open mind is a necessity. Think of from the perspective of the funds managing billions of dollars: it’s not in their interest to be predictable. There’s nothing in the stock market that can be explained by a single headline. Misdirect, delay, prepare. Coronavirus in February was already a red alert and we had a brief panic, but the stock market went back up. I promise you it wasn’t a return to normal, it was a strategic delay. It’s fun exercise to follow the timestamps, the down move started at exactly opex. The move back up was more statistically sound than you’d think. The headlines saying expect a double bottom were basing that on history and ignoring the magnitude of the move. We were many many many standard deviations out of expectations. Put another way, the massive amount of short positions opened when closed out would put us roughly back at (starting price - 2 ln). A smooth drop would line up with expected move models and would have room to continue. You have to be very careful drawing conclusions between current news and current stock prices. You also can’t explain it all by forward looking expectations. If you’re actively trading and don’t have a full model based on past, present and future these types of articles will ruin you.