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The economies are not separate. The essence of what you described is what was laid out by Cantillon, in what is now known as the "Cantillon effect"[1] > "If th
by sparkie 7y ago
The economies are not separate. The essence of what you described is what was laid out by Cantillon, in what is now known as the "Cantillon effect"[1]
> "If the increase of hard money comes from gold and silver mines within the state, the owner of these mines, the entrepreneurs and smelters, refiners, and all the other workers will increase their expenses in proportion to their profits. Their households will consume more meat, wine, or beer than before. They will become accustomed to wearing better clothes, having finer linens, and having more ornate houses and other desirable goods. Consequently, they will give employment to several artisans who did not have that much work before and who, for the same reason, will increase their expenditures. All this increased expenditures on meat, wine, wool etc., necessarily reduces the share of the other inhabitants in the state who did not participate at first in the wealth of those mines in question. The bargaining process of the market, with the demand for meat, wine, wool etc., being stronger than usual, will not fail to raise the prices. These high prices will encourage farmers to employ more land to produce the following year, and these same farmers will profit from the increased prices and will increase their expenditure on their families like the others. Those who will suffer from these higher prices and increased consumption will be, first of all, property owners, during the term of their leases, and then domestic servants and all the workmen or fixed wage earners who support their families on a salary. They must all diminish their expenditures in proportion to the new consumption..."
There is some time for these market effects to occur, so the purchasing power decrease of workers is not seen for some time after the new money is printed. The initial spenders of the new money have purchasing power at the value the money had at the time the new money was created. This is the fed, the government, banks, and financial markets. By the time it trickles down the economy, price rises begin to occur and the bottom earners have reduced purchasing power.
The idea of continuous money printing by the state, even during times of prosperity is Keynes's gift that keeps giving. The state and its elite benefit from increasing the money supply and low earners and savers pay the costs. The fed committing to printing trillions now is simply a way for them to enrich themselves with a convenient excuse which can deflect blame for any economic damage caused - the Coronavirus. This can be seen by comparing what is being printed, and what meagre percentage of it is actually going to the average American in their stimulus checks, versus what is going to banks, big business and others, paid for by future taxpayers. Daylight robbery, which will only further increase wealth inequality.
[1]:https://mises.org/library/essay-economic-theory-0 https://mises.org/library/essay-economic-theory-0 (part 2, chapter 6)
- lonelappde 7y agoIt's not fair to blame Keynes. If they didn't print money, corrupt govt would tax the poor. Keynesian govt spending can pay workers directly for useful work, and even for not working at all. Unemployment insurance is Keynesian.
- jcfrei 7y agoThis Cantillon effects keeps getting mentioned even though it's well outside of mainstream economics. And its convoluted explanation is not accurate in modern financial markets. The reality is much simpler. The FED intervenes by buying financial assets which directly benefits people who hold these financial assets: Either by selling to the FED or through the increase in their price. Poor people without savings (and without financial assets) don't benefit. It's as simple as that.
- ethbro 7y agoI forget which contrarian this stemmed from, but it was probably linked on HN previously. There's a larger reason most central banks print money: most countries are debtor nations. If you are a debtor nation, and you have the option to print at minimal consequence (say, because your currency is a world reserve currency), doing so is strictly better than all other options. All other approaches open the very real possibility of an ugly spiral into depression (real) and default. I believe the phrasing the author used was 'when faced with a choice between actual default (economy unable to support debt payments) and implicit default (currency inflation), almost every democratic government will choose the latter.' It's easier for people to lose invisible money (inflation) than visible money (depression / fiscal tightening / loan repayment).
- lazulicurio 7y ago> This Cantillon effects [...] is not accurate in modern financial markets > The FED intervenes by buying financial assets which directly benefits people who hold these financial assets [...] Poor people without savings (and without financial assets) don't benefit Would you mind expounding on this a little bit? From my perspective, you seem to be decrying the Cantillon effect in one sentence yet acknowledging its existence in the next. Edit: To explain my confusion a bit more: In my (albeit limited) understanding, the Cantillon effect claims that monetary injections will spread unevenly across the economy. So, I read your comment as: "The claim that monetary injections will spread unevenly across the economy is not accurate. The reality is much simpler. The FED just injects money in a way that it spreads unevenly across the economy."