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Article's argument boils down to the claim that outright inflation would buoy the prices of airlines, hotels, and retailers, and since that isn't happening, the
by solatic 7y ago
Article's argument boils down to the claim that outright inflation would buoy the prices of airlines, hotels, and retailers, and since that isn't happening, therefore QE isn't causing inflation.
Ongoing wealth inequality is producing a divergence in where currency is distributed in the economy, and thus producing an uneven effect on pricing. Where desirable investments exist, excess capital is flooding in to capture limited supply and causing inflation in the prices of those investments. Without a return to high employment, injections into capital markets cannot and will not reach Main Street and restore demand. Where demand is primarily driven by Main Street and is relatively elastic, we are beginning to see deflation, e.g. in the CPI which saw 0.4% deflation in March alone.
Arguing that the dollar, as a single fiat currency, has a single value is slowly becoming an outdated concept. The dollar is increasingly valued by Main Street and decreasingly valued by Wall Street. Ordinarily, this would be bridged by arbitrage - by Wall Street purchasing deflated investments and by Main Street selling inflating assets. But Wall Street can't capitalize on the low price of airline and retail stocks until governments permit those businesses to fully return to the market (whether they go bankrupt or not before that happens still being an open question, in spite of the Fed's injections), and Wall Street is failing to capitalize on other deflated opportunities, most spectacularly the failure to seize the opportunity posed by the collapsing price of oil due to a lack of storage. Meanwhile, Main Street has no appreciating assets to sell - the most common of which used to be real estate, but the failure of housing policy to encourage affordable mortgages and home-ownership has caused more and more of Main Street to rent their housing instead.
So there's real deflation that's being masked by an assets bubble. What will burst the bubble? If the Fed is committed to infinite QE, then eventually, political intervention. Look for the following:
* Intervention in housing: price-controls in rent and mortgages, as they become increasingly inaffordable for a Main Street with no income.
* Intervention in medical care: expansion of Medicare and Medicaid, as the demand for healthcare grows among the unemployed who have lost access to employer-provided health insurance.
* Intervention in additional markets that cater mostly to Main Street demand - food, clothing, energy.
Already we see Trump intervening in meat production to force meat suppliers to stay open. Why does the government have to force meat suppliers to stay open, unless they're no longer profitable because of production cuts (i.e. unavailability of labor) for reasons outside of their control?
The Caracas Stock Exchange, denominated in bolivars, has been doing exceptionally well, some 220% YTD ROI. Anybody in the audience running to purchase bolivars?