3 ms·

By massive excess I was referring to vents/tents. Estimates of vents needed were far too high due to the models being relied upon (i.e. not because we surprised

By massive excess I was referring to vents/tents. Estimates of vents needed were far too high due to the models being relied upon (i.e. not because we surprised ourselves with how flat the curve got given the seroprevalence was not expected from policymakers as far as I can tell). Still, I _don't_ know about how we are doing in terms of healthcare workers. That's almost certainly the bottleneck and it may be that it's still a bottleneck. I'd have to do some research to say for sure. It's very possible my statement was not correct in that light. Meta: I'm currently constrained to using one arm since I had a not-so-fun ER visit today, so I'm not really firing on all cylinders right now. So, if you happen to look into the NY capacity matter on your end, I would love to hear your findings.

scott_s 6y ago
I am unsure what the NYC capacity is right now, but I know in some parts of the city, patients literally died in hallways before even getting a proper room. I also personally know a nurse in a hospital in Westchester county (just north of the city), and they had to make impromptu Covid-19 ICUs out of various parts of the hospital, and that turns doctors and nurses who ordinarily did other things (such as surgeries) into ICU doctors and nurses. NYC built more hospital capacity as a response to the dire situation in their hospitals. That some of that extra built capacity is unused is not evidence of overreaction. I also find it odd to separate out the availability of doctors and nurses from the physical beds when our primary question here is whether the hospitals are strained; a bed is of no use with doctors and nurses to help the patient. I'm honestly curious: have you not read the news papers articles talking to doctors and nurses who have personally witnessed the over capacity hospitals in NYC and Chicago?

scott_s 6y ago

I am unsure what the NYC capacity is right now, but I know in some parts of the city, patients literally died in hallways before even getting a proper room. I also personally know a nurse in a hospital in Westchester county (just north of the city), and they had to make impromptu Covid-19 ICUs out of various parts of the hospital, and that turns doctors and nurses who ordinarily did other things (such as surgeries) into ICU doctors and nurses. NYC built more hospital capacity as a response to the dire situation in their hospitals. That some of that extra built capacity is unused is not evidence of overreaction. I also find it odd to separate out the availability of doctors and nurses from the physical beds when our primary question here is whether the hospitals are strained; a bed is of no use with doctors and nurses to help the patient. I'm honestly curious: have you not read the news papers articles talking to doctors and nurses who have personally witnessed the over capacity hospitals in NYC and Chicago?