I'm going to hold up on responding to the points about unfalsifiability for now and focus on addressing this part: > Obviously, we can't lock the entire civili

I'm going to hold up on responding to the points about unfalsifiability for now and focus on addressing this part: > Obviously, we can't lock the entire civilization down forever, and nobody has made such an argument - there will be a gradual easing of restrictions over the coming months, but there's an expectation that we might see another wave of virus transmission in the fall. So, the fear of the "second wave", in my opinion, is precisely because of practicing Containment as opposed to practicing pareto mitigation and letting the virus run its course in non-at-risk individuals. Or more accurately, since we're talking about still quaranting ~40% of the US, we would still see a small wave but it would not be nearly as significant. In other words, the potential for the wave exists because having "protected" everybody from infection, there is now a huge differential pressure for SARS-CoV-2 to exploit. i.e. there are still plenty of vectors and thus the second wave is absolutely a concern. Given how low prevalence in places like California is, I absolutely think we will see that wave. But again I essentially view it as a sign that we handled the situation wrong. Given our current Containment policies, the resurgence of the wave might be met by a new wave of lockdowns. I certainly hope not, but that seems very likely. Hopefully by that point though people have mostly went back to work and thus it _might_ be politically untenable. -- I guess I'll address the unfalsifiable point really briefly (I won't do it justice) - I think the claim that social distancing did/does more than lockdown is definitely falsifiable. Maybe not perfectly so, but we can see movement data and try to correlate that with waves of infection via projecting deaths backwards in time. It's certainly fuzzy given we'd be using average time until death as a proxy, but the claim is much _more_ investigable than the infamous "lockdown worked, end of story" line.