That upper bound seems way too high. I think the Diamond Princess is the perfect case study to use as an upper bound, since we conducted extensive testing and

That upper bound seems way too high. I think the Diamond Princess is the perfect case study to use as an upper bound, since we conducted extensive testing and the population is heavily skewed towards the elderly (and therefore higher risk than general population). See https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.05.20031773v2 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.05.20031773v... > Adjusting for delay from confirmation-to-death, we estimated case and infection fatality ratios (CFR, IFR) for COVID-19 on the Diamond Princess ship as 2.3% (0.75%-5.3%) and 1.2% (0.38-2.7%).