4 ms·

"The only choice we seem able to make anymore is the choice not to make anything." "American manufacturing output is larger than ever" Which is it?

MattGaiser 6y ago
It is not quite larger than ever, but pretty close. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/OUTMS https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/OUTMS
- jbay808 6y ago
  Is this just that thing where the performance of intel processors is computed as being exponentially higher than in the past, so the accounting is inflated accordingly?
  - MattGaiser 6y ago
    The table is labeled "Real Output" which usually means inflation-adjusted and uses 2012 as the base year. I'm no expert on this data but it appears to be.
  - analognoise 6y ago
    No, we make more stuff than at almost any point. We've lost zero manufacturing capability. We just need a fraction of the people that used to be involved - they've been replaced by robots. "The job at the plant" died, not the manufacturing sector.
    - skaevola 6y ago
      Why can't I buy an American made toaster? This isn't a gotcha -- I actually tried a few weeks ago and all I found for my trouble was this website: https://buyingamericanblog.com/2017/05/29/quest-for-made-in-america-toaster/ https://buyingamericanblog.com/2017/05/29/quest-for-made-in-... People with direct experience of the manufacturing sector in the US and abroad (including me) will certainly tell you that America's capabilities have deteriorated, at least relative to other countries. The machine tool industry is considered a good bellwether for industrial capacity and there's been some good research on this topic if you're interested: http://www.bismarckanalysis.com/Machine_Tools_Case_Study.pdf http://www.bismarckanalysis.com/Machine_Tools_Case_Study.pdf
      - jbay808 6y ago
        Why is this downvoted? Seems to present a cogent argument (whereas its parent is a mere assertion) and I'm interested to see any well-sourced rebuttals to it. Anecdotally, I have had a similar impression -- it seems to me like across a wide variety of product categories, it's rare if even possible to find American manufacturers. Go even to a high end department store selling upmarket goods and check where manufactured items are made; very few complex products seem to be in the US. Edit -- by comparison, when I lived in Japan I found it extraordinarily easy to buy locally made products of all sorts; pots and pans, coffee mugs, water bottles, stationery, clothes, shoes, electronics, tools, injection molded plastic items, paper products, everything. Even in their equivalent of dollar stores. Sometimes they were a bit more expensive than those produced in China/Vietnam/Indonesia, but often they were price competitive. It was weird coming back to North America and adapting to not being able to find anything locally made.
        analognoise 6y ago
        I work in defense. I've literally watched a team put together a factory line to build fighter jets fuselages. We can build whatever we want, and the numbers reflect this. We don't build low margin anything because nobody would buy it if it costs more. Japan is a good example - they setup all their car factories in the US in the South specifically to avoid union labor costs! Many Japanese cars, for our market, are made... Right here! Because the shipping and labor overhead would make them uncompetitive.
        jbay808 6y ago
        Are iphone margins low? Fighter jets are almost a cost-is-no-object project, so to me at least, it isn't a good proxy for a country's manufacturing prowess. Your ability to build something is measured by how cheaply you can build that thing. This means that if I can make something more cheaply than you can, I'm actually better at making it than you are, assuming the end product is the same. (You can also cheapen something by cutting corners on the design or materials, but then you're making a different thing).

MattGaiser 6y ago

It is not quite larger than ever, but pretty close. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/OUTMS https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/OUTMS

jbay808 6y ago
Is this just that thing where the performance of intel processors is computed as being exponentially higher than in the past, so the accounting is inflated accordingly?
- MattGaiser 6y ago
  The table is labeled "Real Output" which usually means inflation-adjusted and uses 2012 as the base year. I'm no expert on this data but it appears to be.
- analognoise 6y ago
  No, we make more stuff than at almost any point. We've lost zero manufacturing capability. We just need a fraction of the people that used to be involved - they've been replaced by robots. "The job at the plant" died, not the manufacturing sector.
  - skaevola 6y ago
    Why can't I buy an American made toaster? This isn't a gotcha -- I actually tried a few weeks ago and all I found for my trouble was this website: https://buyingamericanblog.com/2017/05/29/quest-for-made-in-america-toaster/ https://buyingamericanblog.com/2017/05/29/quest-for-made-in-... People with direct experience of the manufacturing sector in the US and abroad (including me) will certainly tell you that America's capabilities have deteriorated, at least relative to other countries. The machine tool industry is considered a good bellwether for industrial capacity and there's been some good research on this topic if you're interested: http://www.bismarckanalysis.com/Machine_Tools_Case_Study.pdf http://www.bismarckanalysis.com/Machine_Tools_Case_Study.pdf
    - jbay808 6y ago
      Why is this downvoted? Seems to present a cogent argument (whereas its parent is a mere assertion) and I'm interested to see any well-sourced rebuttals to it. Anecdotally, I have had a similar impression -- it seems to me like across a wide variety of product categories, it's rare if even possible to find American manufacturers. Go even to a high end department store selling upmarket goods and check where manufactured items are made; very few complex products seem to be in the US. Edit -- by comparison, when I lived in Japan I found it extraordinarily easy to buy locally made products of all sorts; pots and pans, coffee mugs, water bottles, stationery, clothes, shoes, electronics, tools, injection molded plastic items, paper products, everything. Even in their equivalent of dollar stores. Sometimes they were a bit more expensive than those produced in China/Vietnam/Indonesia, but often they were price competitive. It was weird coming back to North America and adapting to not being able to find anything locally made.
      - analognoise 6y ago
        I work in defense. I've literally watched a team put together a factory line to build fighter jets fuselages. We can build whatever we want, and the numbers reflect this. We don't build low margin anything because nobody would buy it if it costs more. Japan is a good example - they setup all their car factories in the US in the South specifically to avoid union labor costs! Many Japanese cars, for our market, are made... Right here! Because the shipping and labor overhead would make them uncompetitive.
        jbay808 6y ago
        Are iphone margins low? Fighter jets are almost a cost-is-no-object project, so to me at least, it isn't a good proxy for a country's manufacturing prowess. Your ability to build something is measured by how cheaply you can build that thing. This means that if I can make something more cheaply than you can, I'm actually better at making it than you are, assuming the end product is the same. (You can also cheapen something by cutting corners on the design or materials, but then you're making a different thing).