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Define "nowhere close"? Apple's cpu's are competitive with x86 when looking at low power applications. Microsoft has multiple examples of windows running on arm

Define "nowhere close"? Apple's cpu's are competitive with x86 when looking at low power applications. Microsoft has multiple examples of windows running on arm. This seems pretty close in the grand scheme of things.

wmf 6y ago
Arm has zero percent market share in PCs. It would take ten years or more to hit 50%.
- lostlogin 6y ago
  The number of computers in use in 10 years will be a lot larger. According to the below link between 2002 and 2014 computer numbers doubled to 2 billion. So if things continued in even vaguely similar form ARM would have to sell about as many machines as are currently used. But there are an awful lot of people who will take a low power, cool machine. Even if slower I’d like some. https://www.reference.com/world-view/many-computers-world-e2e980daa5e128d0 https://www.reference.com/world-view/many-computers-world-e2...
- freehunter 6y ago
  Well they said “consumer CPU”, not “PC CPU”. So the question is, do most consumers do their computing on PC CPUs or ARM CPUs? Which then raises the question, what does “computing” mean...
  - nolok 6y ago
    They also said "x86 for niche case" and I don't think every single desktop computer in existance, from office to gaming to anything, is a niche.
    - wtallis 6y ago
      Laptops outsell desktops by something like a 2:1 ratio. If you restrict your analysis to just consumer devices and exclude office PCs purchased in bulk by businesses, that ratio is even more skewed toward laptops. Desktops are a niche, and x86 could be relegated to niche status for consumer computing simply by ARM making significant inroads to the laptop market without having any uptake in the desktop market. (It's already the case that consumers tend to own more ARM-powered devices than x86-powered devices.)
      - freeflight 6y ago
        Sounds a bit like Google trying to sell Stadia: "Nobody needs processing power close-by, let's compute everything in the cloud and access it with thin-clients!" Which sounds workable in theory, but is unworkable for many people due to limited Internet access speeds/volume. And the real disadvantage then becomes obvious when the "super powerful cloud" only renders the game at console visual details levels with in-built control-lag. Not just limited to gaming: Video-editing is becoming increasingly popular as a hobby and a field of work, which is another use-case for lots of local processing power. So while in terms of market size desktops might be a niche, that niche still fulfills an important function thus I don't see that going away any time soon.
    - freehunter 6y ago
      The point I was trying to make is how many people use phones or tablets instead of x86 PCs. Especially as the iPad becomes more powerful and flexible.
greggyb 6y ago
For the purposes of this conversation, I'll define "nowhere close as follows (and willing to put money on the prediction, if you'd like to negotiate such): "Primary" means simple majority. >50% ARM market share for consumer PCs as defined below. "Consumer CPU" refers to non-server application PCs. Workstations, desktops, laptops, and DIY. Personal and professional use (including enterprise purchases, so the full fleet of corporate laptops at any company are included). Some current examples would include things such as the Talos POWER workstations and ARM workstations. For "PC", the definition gets a little rough, and I'd be willing to negotiate this. I'd say anything where the primary interaction mode is mouse and keyboard. With this definition I would exclude most tablets, but something such as the Microsoft Surface would be included. The test that includes the Surface and excludes most other tablets is that the Surface is sold with a keyboard and trackpad. If the keyboard and trackpad is not included or required, then it's not a PC. This rule would also exclude something like a NAS, where the hardware is basically that of a tower desktop, but the use is headless; this would be a server. Like I said, this can get a bit loose. Happy to negotiate a firmer definition. As for "nowhere close", I'd say that we won't see ARM as the primary consumer CPU for the next decade easily. I'd be willing to bet $1,000 US on this. If you wanted different timelines, I'd put $5,000 on 5 years, and $500 on 15 years. Apple's market share won't push ARM past 50%. Enterprises move slowly and make up a lot of the PC market. If you assume a 3-year hardware replacement cycle, then ARM would have to come to dominance at least 3 years before the end of a betting period for it to have a chance of meeting the end of the betting period. Thus, for the 5 year timeline, ARM would have to be dominant by 2022. For the 10-year, by 2027. Separately, in writing this response, I realize that you could easily make the argument that a "consumer CPU" includes cell phones and tablets. This is a very different conversation.
- spideymans 6y ago
  > "Consumer CPU" refers to non-server application PCs. Workstations, desktops, laptops, and DIY. Personal and professional use (including enterprise purchases, so the full fleet of corporate laptops at any company are included). This is a totally arbitrary distinction. We can’t just ignore the fact that consumers are doing the bulk of their computing on smartphones nowadays.
kllrnohj 6y ago
> Microsoft has multiple examples of windows running on arm And none of them have been well received or commercially successful. They seem to be more defensive bet hedging against Intel than anything intended to go anywhere.
- rowanG077 6y ago
  Surface Pro X has been well received. Don't know whether it is commercially successful though.
  - kllrnohj 6y ago
    > Surface Pro X has been well received The reviews look to all be middling at best, with a common refrain being "Get the Surface Pro 7 instead." Where are you seeing it be well received?
    - rowanG077 6y ago
      Just now I googled "Surface Pro x review" and picked the top 4 results which are actual reviews. Out of those only one is negative. This also seems to align with my own experience of users using it. https://www.tomsguide.com/reviews/surface-pro-x https://www.tomsguide.com/reviews/surface-pro-x: "The Microsoft Surface Pro X looks like the first ARM-powered laptop worth buying." https://www.windowscentral.com/surface-pro-x https://www.windowscentral.com/surface-pro-x: "Complicated but brilliant." https://www.neowin.net/news/microsoft-surface-pro-x-review-its-the-perfect-portable-pcfor-me/ https://www.neowin.net/news/microsoft-surface-pro-x-review-i... "For me, it's the Surface Pro X. Personally, I think this is nearly a perfect PC, and Microsoft really nailed this one." https://www.theverge.com/2019/11/5/20948092/microsoft-surface-pro-x-review-arm-windows-10-apps-features-specs-price https://www.theverge.com/2019/11/5/20948092/microsoft-surfac...: "Better then expected is not enough."

wmf 6y ago

Arm has zero percent market share in PCs. It would take ten years or more to hit 50%.

lostlogin 6y ago
The number of computers in use in 10 years will be a lot larger. According to the below link between 2002 and 2014 computer numbers doubled to 2 billion. So if things continued in even vaguely similar form ARM would have to sell about as many machines as are currently used. But there are an awful lot of people who will take a low power, cool machine. Even if slower I’d like some. https://www.reference.com/world-view/many-computers-world-e2e980daa5e128d0 https://www.reference.com/world-view/many-computers-world-e2...
freehunter 6y ago
Well they said “consumer CPU”, not “PC CPU”. So the question is, do most consumers do their computing on PC CPUs or ARM CPUs? Which then raises the question, what does “computing” mean...
- nolok 6y ago
  They also said "x86 for niche case" and I don't think every single desktop computer in existance, from office to gaming to anything, is a niche.
  - wtallis 6y ago
    Laptops outsell desktops by something like a 2:1 ratio. If you restrict your analysis to just consumer devices and exclude office PCs purchased in bulk by businesses, that ratio is even more skewed toward laptops. Desktops are a niche, and x86 could be relegated to niche status for consumer computing simply by ARM making significant inroads to the laptop market without having any uptake in the desktop market. (It's already the case that consumers tend to own more ARM-powered devices than x86-powered devices.)
    - freeflight 6y ago
      Sounds a bit like Google trying to sell Stadia: "Nobody needs processing power close-by, let's compute everything in the cloud and access it with thin-clients!" Which sounds workable in theory, but is unworkable for many people due to limited Internet access speeds/volume. And the real disadvantage then becomes obvious when the "super powerful cloud" only renders the game at console visual details levels with in-built control-lag. Not just limited to gaming: Video-editing is becoming increasingly popular as a hobby and a field of work, which is another use-case for lots of local processing power. So while in terms of market size desktops might be a niche, that niche still fulfills an important function thus I don't see that going away any time soon.
  - freehunter 6y ago
    The point I was trying to make is how many people use phones or tablets instead of x86 PCs. Especially as the iPad becomes more powerful and flexible.

greggyb 6y ago

For the purposes of this conversation, I'll define "nowhere close as follows (and willing to put money on the prediction, if you'd like to negotiate such): "Primary" means simple majority. >50% ARM market share for consumer PCs as defined below. "Consumer CPU" refers to non-server application PCs. Workstations, desktops, laptops, and DIY. Personal and professional use (including enterprise purchases, so the full fleet of corporate laptops at any company are included). Some current examples would include things such as the Talos POWER workstations and ARM workstations. For "PC", the definition gets a little rough, and I'd be willing to negotiate this. I'd say anything where the primary interaction mode is mouse and keyboard. With this definition I would exclude most tablets, but something such as the Microsoft Surface would be included. The test that includes the Surface and excludes most other tablets is that the Surface is sold with a keyboard and trackpad. If the keyboard and trackpad is not included or required, then it's not a PC. This rule would also exclude something like a NAS, where the hardware is basically that of a tower desktop, but the use is headless; this would be a server. Like I said, this can get a bit loose. Happy to negotiate a firmer definition. As for "nowhere close", I'd say that we won't see ARM as the primary consumer CPU for the next decade easily. I'd be willing to bet $1,000 US on this. If you wanted different timelines, I'd put $5,000 on 5 years, and $500 on 15 years. Apple's market share won't push ARM past 50%. Enterprises move slowly and make up a lot of the PC market. If you assume a 3-year hardware replacement cycle, then ARM would have to come to dominance at least 3 years before the end of a betting period for it to have a chance of meeting the end of the betting period. Thus, for the 5 year timeline, ARM would have to be dominant by 2022. For the 10-year, by 2027. Separately, in writing this response, I realize that you could easily make the argument that a "consumer CPU" includes cell phones and tablets. This is a very different conversation.

spideymans 6y ago
> "Consumer CPU" refers to non-server application PCs. Workstations, desktops, laptops, and DIY. Personal and professional use (including enterprise purchases, so the full fleet of corporate laptops at any company are included). This is a totally arbitrary distinction. We can’t just ignore the fact that consumers are doing the bulk of their computing on smartphones nowadays.

kllrnohj 6y ago

> Microsoft has multiple examples of windows running on arm And none of them have been well received or commercially successful. They seem to be more defensive bet hedging against Intel than anything intended to go anywhere.

rowanG077 6y ago
Surface Pro X has been well received. Don't know whether it is commercially successful though.
- kllrnohj 6y ago
  > Surface Pro X has been well received The reviews look to all be middling at best, with a common refrain being "Get the Surface Pro 7 instead." Where are you seeing it be well received?
  - rowanG077 6y ago
    Just now I googled "Surface Pro x review" and picked the top 4 results which are actual reviews. Out of those only one is negative. This also seems to align with my own experience of users using it. https://www.tomsguide.com/reviews/surface-pro-x https://www.tomsguide.com/reviews/surface-pro-x: "The Microsoft Surface Pro X looks like the first ARM-powered laptop worth buying." https://www.windowscentral.com/surface-pro-x https://www.windowscentral.com/surface-pro-x: "Complicated but brilliant." https://www.neowin.net/news/microsoft-surface-pro-x-review-its-the-perfect-portable-pcfor-me/ https://www.neowin.net/news/microsoft-surface-pro-x-review-i... "For me, it's the Surface Pro X. Personally, I think this is nearly a perfect PC, and Microsoft really nailed this one." https://www.theverge.com/2019/11/5/20948092/microsoft-surface-pro-x-review-arm-windows-10-apps-features-specs-price https://www.theverge.com/2019/11/5/20948092/microsoft-surfac...: "Better then expected is not enough."