I have a fair share of interactions with the apocalyptic crowd, so this is based on interactions with that side I tend to try to demonstrate napkin math with p

I have a fair share of interactions with the apocalyptic crowd, so this is based on interactions with that side I tend to try to demonstrate napkin math with pessimistic numbers to show that they're out of bound. Napkin math is particularly useful math because it allows one to play with parameters & abstracts/aggregates complicated bits. So we can also show how pessimistic things would have to be for them to be right, ie what we should be seeing now which would support their projection outside of their anecdotes or imagination It's important to not become identified as an adversary (ie, I'm not denying a problem when I assert they should reduce their perceived risk). This means making sure to underline which facts you agree on, & verify that your values are aligned