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> The situation I fear is that communities open back up but business activity remains low due to fear around viral contraction. If that's true, labor demand wi

> The situation I fear is that communities open back up but business activity remains low due to fear around viral contraction. If that's true, labor demand will shift to delivery, fulfillment and online marketing. Perhaps the US is collectively going to "move inside", but if so, that's only because there never was a lot of interesting stuff outside to begin with. Look at Europe with its pretty cities or China with its metropolises, people are already back in the streets, they aren't so paranoid about the virus.

pbourke 6y ago
> people are already back in the streets, they aren't so paranoid about the virus. Photos of crowds are one thing - economic stats tell the real story. It’s too early to tell how people’s behavior has changed.
save_ferris 6y ago
> If that’s true, labor demand will shift to delivery, fulfillment and online marketing Delivery and fulfillment are not good paying jobs, and it can take years to development expert-level marketing skills to earn top dollar. Lots of people are going to struggle with this kind of transition. > Perhaps the US is collectively going to "move inside", but if so, that's only because there never was a lot of interesting stuff outside to begin with. This is completely subjective, based on personal preference, and a position that I completely disagree with. And Italy is still locked down for another week, at which point they’ll slowly begin reopening. Wuhan has reopened but we won’t know the full economic impact of their reopening for a while.
- gridlockd 6y ago
  > Delivery and fulfillment are not good paying jobs, and it can take years to development expert-level marketing skills to earn top dollar. Lots of people are going to struggle with this kind of transition. I didn't say it was going to be easy or that everyone would maintain their level of income. I'm saying there will still be demand for labor. Also, any of those service-sector jobs that have or will be lost weren't good paying either. > This is completely subjective, based on personal preference, and a position that I completely disagree with. What is there to go outside for in your average US city? The mall? Even those were already half-dead before COVID-19. Maybe if you live in one of the better cities there's at least a little bit of urban space that is not cookie cutter wasteland. Those places will survive. > And Italy is still locked down for another week, at which point they’ll slowly begin reopening. Perhaps, but in Sweden it's pretty much life as usual, in Germany the streets and parks are filled and even in Spain people are back outside. As soon as businesses reopen, people will visit them.
  - jaegerpicker 6y ago
    > What is there to go outside for in your average US city? The mall? Even those were already half-dead before COVID-19? Really? Bars, Clubs, restaurants, concerts, museums, art gallery's, and gyms off the top of my head. Street fairs, parties, festivals, conventions, sporting events, school concerts and events if you count less commercially driven events. That's only things that exist primarily in large cities, national parks, city parks, hiking trails, fishing, hunting, and boating outside of the city. There are literally hundreds of other things to go out for. If someone choose to stay inside that's clearly because they choose to ignore the large amount of things to do or they can't afford to in money/time terms.
    - gridlockd 6y ago
      > Bars, Clubs, restaurants, concerts, museums, art gallery's, and gyms off the top of my head. Yes these things exist, sort of, at least in some places. Besides restaurants, none of these are given much attention by the average American consumer. > That's only things that exist primarily in large cities, national parks, city parks, hiking trails, fishing, hunting, and boating outside of the city. The point I am making is that the cities in the US are largely so uninteresting that you might as well stay inside and take your business there.
      - jaegerpicker 6y ago
        Bars are packed, concerts sell out, museums are busy, and plenty of gyms do a large healthy business just prior to the CoronaVirus outbreak. In what world do you live that American consumer's didn't go to these places? Here on the East coast (Northeast for sure) that is NOT true at all. I doubt it's true anywhere. I understood your point I just think it's poorly made and not at all backed by reality.
        gridlockd 6y ago
        I do not know what to tell you. Just compare American and European cities. American cities are depressing. Of course existing bars and gyms have visitors, otherwise they would be out of business. Yet, the average American is overweight to obese and certainly not a bar hopper.

pbourke 6y ago

> people are already back in the streets, they aren't so paranoid about the virus. Photos of crowds are one thing - economic stats tell the real story. It’s too early to tell how people’s behavior has changed.

save_ferris 6y ago

> If that’s true, labor demand will shift to delivery, fulfillment and online marketing Delivery and fulfillment are not good paying jobs, and it can take years to development expert-level marketing skills to earn top dollar. Lots of people are going to struggle with this kind of transition. > Perhaps the US is collectively going to "move inside", but if so, that's only because there never was a lot of interesting stuff outside to begin with. This is completely subjective, based on personal preference, and a position that I completely disagree with. And Italy is still locked down for another week, at which point they’ll slowly begin reopening. Wuhan has reopened but we won’t know the full economic impact of their reopening for a while.

gridlockd 6y ago
> Delivery and fulfillment are not good paying jobs, and it can take years to development expert-level marketing skills to earn top dollar. Lots of people are going to struggle with this kind of transition. I didn't say it was going to be easy or that everyone would maintain their level of income. I'm saying there will still be demand for labor. Also, any of those service-sector jobs that have or will be lost weren't good paying either. > This is completely subjective, based on personal preference, and a position that I completely disagree with. What is there to go outside for in your average US city? The mall? Even those were already half-dead before COVID-19. Maybe if you live in one of the better cities there's at least a little bit of urban space that is not cookie cutter wasteland. Those places will survive. > And Italy is still locked down for another week, at which point they’ll slowly begin reopening. Perhaps, but in Sweden it's pretty much life as usual, in Germany the streets and parks are filled and even in Spain people are back outside. As soon as businesses reopen, people will visit them.
- jaegerpicker 6y ago
  > What is there to go outside for in your average US city? The mall? Even those were already half-dead before COVID-19? Really? Bars, Clubs, restaurants, concerts, museums, art gallery's, and gyms off the top of my head. Street fairs, parties, festivals, conventions, sporting events, school concerts and events if you count less commercially driven events. That's only things that exist primarily in large cities, national parks, city parks, hiking trails, fishing, hunting, and boating outside of the city. There are literally hundreds of other things to go out for. If someone choose to stay inside that's clearly because they choose to ignore the large amount of things to do or they can't afford to in money/time terms.
  - gridlockd 6y ago
    > Bars, Clubs, restaurants, concerts, museums, art gallery's, and gyms off the top of my head. Yes these things exist, sort of, at least in some places. Besides restaurants, none of these are given much attention by the average American consumer. > That's only things that exist primarily in large cities, national parks, city parks, hiking trails, fishing, hunting, and boating outside of the city. The point I am making is that the cities in the US are largely so uninteresting that you might as well stay inside and take your business there.
    - jaegerpicker 6y ago
      Bars are packed, concerts sell out, museums are busy, and plenty of gyms do a large healthy business just prior to the CoronaVirus outbreak. In what world do you live that American consumer's didn't go to these places? Here on the East coast (Northeast for sure) that is NOT true at all. I doubt it's true anywhere. I understood your point I just think it's poorly made and not at all backed by reality.
      - gridlockd 6y ago
        I do not know what to tell you. Just compare American and European cities. American cities are depressing. Of course existing bars and gyms have visitors, otherwise they would be out of business. Yet, the average American is overweight to obese and certainly not a bar hopper.