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replying to your reply via edit: > _you_ assuming that the US is a linear relation to GB may or may not be accurate. Right, this is why I called it 'naive.'
by rrss 6y ago
replying to your reply via edit:
> _you_ assuming that the US is a linear relation to GB may or may not be accurate.
Right, this is why I called it 'naive.'
My main point stands: your comment misuses the prediction that does not assume full suppression as if it applied to the current situation of aggressive social distancing.
> The US beat every single explicitly enumerated via a integer expert pre-peak total deaths prediction; by a lot.
From 'nodamage's comment pointing to the ICL's "Report 12," they predicted 84,000 deaths for the U.S. in a situation where suppression measures were put in place around 3/19.
Given that the U.S. reported number of deaths is at ~61,000 and still seeing 1,500+ deaths per day, this doesn't exactly make me want to claim victory against the estimate - more like 'thanks for the predictions, ICL team, for helping convince people and governments to shut down.'
The ~60k could be an overestimate, yeah. Maybe it's counting people that have coronavirus and are then hit by a truck, or people who would have died of pneumonia regardless of covid19.
But it could be the other way around, too: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/28/us/coronavirus-death-toll-total.html https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/28/us/coronaviru....
- jakeogh 6y agohttps://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm
- rrss 6y ago> COVID-19 death counts shown here may differ from other published sources, as data currently are lagged by an average of 1–2 weeks. > *Data during this period are incomplete because of the lag in time between when the death occurred and when the death certificate is completed, submitted to NCHS and processed for reporting purposes. This delay can range from 1 week to 8 weeks or more, depending on the jurisdiction, age, and cause of death.
- jakeogh 6y agoIndeed. As this tails off, it's going to be the official spot to check the prediction[1] linked here against. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23028036 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23028036 Also: https://mobile.twitter.com/johncardillo/status/1256577527662903298 https://mobile.twitter.com/johncardillo/status/1256577527662...
- rrss 6y agoNeat, so come back in a few months. Also, I haven't got a clue who John Cardillo is, but that tweet doesn't really say much other than he thinks something is a scam. The 37k currently reported at the CDC link corresponds to the deaths reported for ~12 days ago at https://github.com/nytimes/covid-19-data/blob/master/us.csv https://github.com/nytimes/covid-19-data/blob/master/us.csv, so it isn't clear that the discrepancy is not largely explained by the lag to process death certificates. EDIT: I looked at some of his other tweets, and it seems like he is upset that the count here from the National Vital Statistics System https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm doesn't match the count here https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/case..., and interprets that to mean that the CDC is lying to the U.S. population. I disagree with that assessment, and the CDC explains the NVSS data here: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/tech_notes.htm https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/tech_notes.htm: > Provisional death counts in this report will not match counts in other sources, such as media reports or numbers from county health departments. John Cardillo says that "You’ve been misled while lunatics try to destroy your county and steal your way of life" (presumably he means "country"?), the CDC explains the discrepancy. I'll go with the CDC.