5 ms·

To me this feels a little like the situation around 2000 and 2001. A lot of fundamentals were out of whack but things kept moving. Then 9/11 happened which shou

To me this feels a little like the situation around 2000 and 2001. A lot of fundamentals were out of whack but things kept moving. Then 9/11 happened which shouldn’t have derailed the economy by itself but it triggered the unraveling. So the lockdown may just be the trigger that will pop the bubble that has been building since 2008. My prediction is that measures will be taken to reinflate the bubble which will then go on for another ten years so we will probably have an even bigger collapse around 2028-2030. And every time more wealth will get moved to the top x percent.

gremlinsinc 6y ago
I think they'll try, but I honestly think we've got a perfect storm coming. Now's the best time ever for automation to take off. There's also going to be more big businesses eating little businesses and consolidation. Globalization's biggest leaders will come out ahead, and thrive as always - but a LOT less workers are going to be needed in general from here on out thanks to ML/AI/Etc... It's first step towards post-scarcity, except for the millions who will be hurt if govt's don't create repurposing plans to give people a purpose for existing and enough $ to eat and live. Also, I personally won't step foot in a sit-down restaurant or movie theater for at least 2-3 years, or until there's a viable vaccine. I'm sure I'm not the only person boycotting crowds. Real estate analysts estimate that 50%+ of mall retailers will close their door by q4 2021. that's a shit ton of jobs gone forever. I was starting to get skeptical of the claim that 40% of jobs would be gone by 2030, but 2020 definitely is showing it's highly possible. What do we do w/ 40% permanent unemployment?
- gridlockd 6y ago
  > What do we do w/ 40% permanent unemployment? This assumes that somehow people cannot be re-trained to do other things, if those jobs really all disappear, which they probably wont. There's always more work to do, things to improve, people to help. It will be like that forever. The question is, who allocates labor? Perhaps the kind of market system we have has run its course, perhaps this time it's over. I predict that the market will recover, just like it always has, but feel free to disagree.
  - pbourke 6y ago
    > I predict that the market will recover, just like it always has, but feel free to disagree. What are the public policies that will help the market recover? (assuming that you mean the “job market” or “market economy” in general, and not the stock market which is another topic) Are those policies pursued or likely to be pursued in the next few years? It seems politically untenable in the US to break from the “socialism for large business/the wealthy, free market for everyone else” slate of policies. And this is with either political party. Whenever there has been epochal change and recovery in the US economy during the 20th century there have been substantial policy changes: the New Deal in the ‘30s. The Military-Scientific spending in the 40s-60s.
    - gridlockd 6y ago
      The market recovers on its own, because it reflects the wants and needs of the population. The most important thing the government can do is to maintain the stability of the currency as well as law and order. Whenever there has been a government response to market crisis, it is hailed as "the solution" in retrospect by the powers that be. The alternative history where the intervention never took place doesn't play out and can't be judged on its merits.
      - pbourke 6y ago
        > The market recovers on its own, because it reflects the wants and needs of the population. What does a successful recovery look like? There are a large number of market-distorting policies in effect today. I'm talking about both policies that predate the crisis and those that went into effect during the response (these are mainly monetary - the fiscal ones seem temporary at this point). > The most important thing the government can do is to maintain the stability of the currency as well as law and order. To get to this point, the government would need to undo interventions that are currently in place throughout the economy. If the government were to "do nothing" (really, "change nothing") starting today, then this would in no way be some kind of "free market" like you're implying should exist. Do you think that the government should undo interventions across the economy? Or apply new ones? Or leave the existing alone? I'm genuinely curious
- lookdangerous 6y ago
  How can government give folks a purpose? I always assumed that in our strange age purpose is up to the individual, but now I am curious how a nation-state could foster `a purpose-driven life`.
  - golergka 6y ago
    Nation states tried to do that in twentieth century, with very disappointing results.
QuesnayJr 6y ago
The US economy entered a recession in March 2001, which it exited in November 2001. So 9/11 was shortly followed by a recovery, not an unraveling.
- greenshackle2 6y ago
  s/November 2011/November 2001/
  - QuesnayJr 6y ago
    Thanks, fixed.
wonderwonder 6y ago
I agree. Just look at what is happening right now. Tens of millions losing their jobs and the stock market collapsed. This allowed rich people with money to buy stocks for cheap. Government pumped money into the financial markets and directly into companies allowing stocks to rally. Rich people got richer. It happens like this over and over again. Meanwhile tens of thousands of people are spending hours waiting in lines just to get food. The system is designed to move money from the masses to the top.

gremlinsinc 6y ago

I think they'll try, but I honestly think we've got a perfect storm coming. Now's the best time ever for automation to take off. There's also going to be more big businesses eating little businesses and consolidation. Globalization's biggest leaders will come out ahead, and thrive as always - but a LOT less workers are going to be needed in general from here on out thanks to ML/AI/Etc... It's first step towards post-scarcity, except for the millions who will be hurt if govt's don't create repurposing plans to give people a purpose for existing and enough $ to eat and live. Also, I personally won't step foot in a sit-down restaurant or movie theater for at least 2-3 years, or until there's a viable vaccine. I'm sure I'm not the only person boycotting crowds. Real estate analysts estimate that 50%+ of mall retailers will close their door by q4 2021. that's a shit ton of jobs gone forever. I was starting to get skeptical of the claim that 40% of jobs would be gone by 2030, but 2020 definitely is showing it's highly possible. What do we do w/ 40% permanent unemployment?

gridlockd 6y ago
> What do we do w/ 40% permanent unemployment? This assumes that somehow people cannot be re-trained to do other things, if those jobs really all disappear, which they probably wont. There's always more work to do, things to improve, people to help. It will be like that forever. The question is, who allocates labor? Perhaps the kind of market system we have has run its course, perhaps this time it's over. I predict that the market will recover, just like it always has, but feel free to disagree.
- pbourke 6y ago
  > I predict that the market will recover, just like it always has, but feel free to disagree. What are the public policies that will help the market recover? (assuming that you mean the “job market” or “market economy” in general, and not the stock market which is another topic) Are those policies pursued or likely to be pursued in the next few years? It seems politically untenable in the US to break from the “socialism for large business/the wealthy, free market for everyone else” slate of policies. And this is with either political party. Whenever there has been epochal change and recovery in the US economy during the 20th century there have been substantial policy changes: the New Deal in the ‘30s. The Military-Scientific spending in the 40s-60s.
  - gridlockd 6y ago
    The market recovers on its own, because it reflects the wants and needs of the population. The most important thing the government can do is to maintain the stability of the currency as well as law and order. Whenever there has been a government response to market crisis, it is hailed as "the solution" in retrospect by the powers that be. The alternative history where the intervention never took place doesn't play out and can't be judged on its merits.
    - pbourke 6y ago
      > The market recovers on its own, because it reflects the wants and needs of the population. What does a successful recovery look like? There are a large number of market-distorting policies in effect today. I'm talking about both policies that predate the crisis and those that went into effect during the response (these are mainly monetary - the fiscal ones seem temporary at this point). > The most important thing the government can do is to maintain the stability of the currency as well as law and order. To get to this point, the government would need to undo interventions that are currently in place throughout the economy. If the government were to "do nothing" (really, "change nothing") starting today, then this would in no way be some kind of "free market" like you're implying should exist. Do you think that the government should undo interventions across the economy? Or apply new ones? Or leave the existing alone? I'm genuinely curious
lookdangerous 6y ago
How can government give folks a purpose? I always assumed that in our strange age purpose is up to the individual, but now I am curious how a nation-state could foster `a purpose-driven life`.
- golergka 6y ago
  Nation states tried to do that in twentieth century, with very disappointing results.

QuesnayJr 6y ago

The US economy entered a recession in March 2001, which it exited in November 2001. So 9/11 was shortly followed by a recovery, not an unraveling.

greenshackle2 6y ago
s/November 2011/November 2001/
- QuesnayJr 6y ago
  Thanks, fixed.

wonderwonder 6y ago

I agree. Just look at what is happening right now. Tens of millions losing their jobs and the stock market collapsed. This allowed rich people with money to buy stocks for cheap. Government pumped money into the financial markets and directly into companies allowing stocks to rally. Rich people got richer. It happens like this over and over again. Meanwhile tens of thousands of people are spending hours waiting in lines just to get food. The system is designed to move money from the masses to the top.