3 ms·
How do you come to the conclusion of IFR likely <.5%? I’ve seen it consistently reported as 0.5-1.5%.
by legulere 7y ago
How do you come to the conclusion of IFR likely <.5%? I’ve seen it consistently reported as 0.5-1.5%.
- __blockcipher__ 7y agoThe general method is to estimate serological prevalence and then calculate implied IFR using the published death counts. The key point being that the “confirmed cases” numbers are useless due to massive overcounting, so you need to instead rely on serology.
- ryankemper 7y agoThat upper bound seems way too high. I think the Diamond Princess is the perfect case study to use as an upper bound, since we conducted extensive testing and the population is heavily skewed towards the elderly (and therefore higher risk than general population). See https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.05.20031773v2 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.05.20031773v... > Adjusting for delay from confirmation-to-death, we estimated case and infection fatality ratios (CFR, IFR) for COVID-19 on the Diamond Princess ship as 2.3% (0.75%-5.3%) and 1.2% (0.38-2.7%).