4 ms·

NYC, while under pretty extreme lockdowns still likely had 25% of its population infected as of over 2 weeks ago. If the serological surveys are correct, we kn

NYC, while under pretty extreme lockdowns still likely had 25% of its population infected as of over 2 weeks ago. If the serological surveys are correct, we know two things, it spreads rampantly even under harsh lockdowns and the IFR (infection fatality ratio) is likely <.5%. I tend to think we should stay locked down to slow the spread if that's even still a thing given how fast it has spread in NYC. But on the bright side, NYC now has an upper bound of 4x the current cases before everyone is already infected and all hopefully immune.

xienze 6y ago
NYC was famously late to the lockdown party. But even absent that, the lifestyle of the average New Yorker is very different from pretty much every other American. Way more opportunities for infection just going about your day-to-day life. E.g., just going to the store/office involves passing by hundreds of people as you walk to the subway, wait on a crowded platform, sit on a crowded train, etc.
legulere 6y ago
How do you come to the conclusion of IFR likely <.5%? I’ve seen it consistently reported as 0.5-1.5%.
- __blockcipher__ 6y ago
  The general method is to estimate serological prevalence and then calculate implied IFR using the published death counts. The key point being that the “confirmed cases” numbers are useless due to massive overcounting, so you need to instead rely on serology.
- ryankemper 6y ago
  That upper bound seems way too high. I think the Diamond Princess is the perfect case study to use as an upper bound, since we conducted extensive testing and the population is heavily skewed towards the elderly (and therefore higher risk than general population). See https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.05.20031773v2 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.05.20031773v... > Adjusting for delay from confirmation-to-death, we estimated case and infection fatality ratios (CFR, IFR) for COVID-19 on the Diamond Princess ship as 2.3% (0.75%-5.3%) and 1.2% (0.38-2.7%).

xienze 6y ago

NYC was famously late to the lockdown party. But even absent that, the lifestyle of the average New Yorker is very different from pretty much every other American. Way more opportunities for infection just going about your day-to-day life. E.g., just going to the store/office involves passing by hundreds of people as you walk to the subway, wait on a crowded platform, sit on a crowded train, etc.

legulere 6y ago

How do you come to the conclusion of IFR likely <.5%? I’ve seen it consistently reported as 0.5-1.5%.

__blockcipher__ 6y ago
The general method is to estimate serological prevalence and then calculate implied IFR using the published death counts. The key point being that the “confirmed cases” numbers are useless due to massive overcounting, so you need to instead rely on serology.
ryankemper 6y ago
That upper bound seems way too high. I think the Diamond Princess is the perfect case study to use as an upper bound, since we conducted extensive testing and the population is heavily skewed towards the elderly (and therefore higher risk than general population). See https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.05.20031773v2 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.05.20031773v... > Adjusting for delay from confirmation-to-death, we estimated case and infection fatality ratios (CFR, IFR) for COVID-19 on the Diamond Princess ship as 2.3% (0.75%-5.3%) and 1.2% (0.38-2.7%).