> If the authors had given a table for the US, we could see what their model predicted, but they did not, and _you_ assuming that the US is a linear relation to

> If the authors had given a table for the US, we could see what their model predicted, but they did not, and _you_ assuming that the US is a linear relation to GB may or may not be accurate. The Imperial College team actually did model country-by-country numbers in a follow up report on March 24th: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/covid-19/report-12-global-impact-covid-19/ https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-ana... The United States estimates for several different scenarios are: Unmitigated: 2,654,410 deaths Mitigation strategy (social distancing whole population): 1,358,164 deaths Mitigation strategy (enhanced social distancing of elderly): 1,090,267 deaths Suppression strategy (triggered at 1.6 deaths per 100,000): 474,227 deaths Suppression strategy (triggered at 0.2 deaths per 100,000): 84,124 deaths The differences between mitigation and suppression are explained in the paper.