4 ms·
>> The US beat every single expert pre-peak total deaths prediction; by a lot. This is mostly because the UW IHME model was brutally terrible as was the Imperi
by icelancer 7y ago
>> The US beat every single expert pre-peak total deaths prediction; by a lot.
This is mostly because the UW IHME model was brutally terrible as was the Imperial College modeling. They predicted insane amounts of death that had no chance of happening while baking in social distancing orders.
We massively overreacted and the convenient out is "well, we beat the models, that's a good thing!"
Not if the dose was more poison than antidote. I could have predicted 5 million deaths pulling it out of my ass and I shouldn't get credit for the US coming in under that estimate.
- jakeogh 7y ago"We massively overreacted" I agree, but that was not an accident. Cui bono? Seems worth repeating: "We can't let the cure be worse than the problem itself" https://twitter.com/GPIngersoll/status/1255564315891032064 https://twitter.com/GPIngersoll/status/1255564315891032064
- icelancer 7y agoI don't think it was malice in this case, though I get your point. I think the people that did the models were just incompetent and also shaded them to be overconservative because they felt it would be better (so slightly fraudulent, perhaps). But all evidence points to the IHME to just be terrible at their jobs and influenced a country to massively over-react.