4 ms·

Yeah, this seems to be about the right direction. California as a whole (I don't have access to Bay Area data specifically) is clearly at a relatively stable p

Yeah, this seems to be about the right direction. California as a whole (I don't have access to Bay Area data specifically) is clearly at a relatively stable peak, but the new infection rate hasn't dropped much and there's comparatively little room for error. Other states are looking better[1]. Vermont, Alaska, Montana and Hawaii are all well below their peak infection rates and still dropping. Those are the places that should start relaxing rules earlier. [1] Some are looking much worse, of course. Watch Nebraska in particular: their new infection rate has been growing at close to 10% per day for almost three weeks, and at that rate they'll be at a New York scale outbreak in just two more. I haven't seen any coverage of what's going on there (i.e. whether it's a specific local outbreak like the Smithfield one in SD).

r00fus 7y ago
Vermont and Montana are sparse states so not surprising. Hawaii - that is interesting. Are those numbers accurate?
- CydeWeys 7y ago
  People give too much weight to overall sparsity/density, discounting how much human behavior has a role in creating personal density even in seemingly sparse areas. You can see massive infections in very sparse rural areas so long as people are congregating and not taking precautions. That seems to be what's happening in Nebraska. Behavior matters more. Here in Manhattan we're past the peak solely because of changes in behavior. It doesn't matter how sense the built environment is when most people are barely leaving their homes.
- dylz 7y ago
  New arrivals including domestic flights to Hawaii are being subject to heavy quarantine with follow-up, requirements of full documentation of where you will be staying, etc. https://hidot.hawaii.gov/blog/2020/04/24/improved-verification-process-implemented-for-airline-passengers/ https://hidot.hawaii.gov/blog/2020/04/24/improved-verificati... They do not have the hospital capacity for this getting out of control.
  - netllama 7y ago
    No one has the hospital capacity for COVID19 getting out of control. That's the fundamental reason for the quarantines everywhere.
    - dylz 7y ago
      Preaching to the choir. I guess what I mean is that as a small island state far from anywhere else, if it gets bad, it gets _much worse_ than on the mainland.
usaar333 7y ago
Bay Area has dropped significantly: https://covid-19.direct/metro/BayArea https://covid-19.direct/metro/BayArea Santa Clara has dropped even more significantly: https://covid-19.direct/county/CA/Santa%20Clara https://covid-19.direct/county/CA/Santa%20Clara. It's at 10 cases/day/million now (3% test positive rate), below even Germany who is opening schools.
lsllc 7y ago
Vermont had it's first day today in 7 weeks with 0 new cases: https://vtdigger.org/2020/04/29/vermont-reports-zero-new-cases-of-covid-19-as-scott-unveils-new-testing-strategy/ https://vtdigger.org/2020/04/29/vermont-reports-zero-new-cas...

r00fus 7y ago

Vermont and Montana are sparse states so not surprising. Hawaii - that is interesting. Are those numbers accurate?

CydeWeys 7y ago
People give too much weight to overall sparsity/density, discounting how much human behavior has a role in creating personal density even in seemingly sparse areas. You can see massive infections in very sparse rural areas so long as people are congregating and not taking precautions. That seems to be what's happening in Nebraska. Behavior matters more. Here in Manhattan we're past the peak solely because of changes in behavior. It doesn't matter how sense the built environment is when most people are barely leaving their homes.
dylz 7y ago
New arrivals including domestic flights to Hawaii are being subject to heavy quarantine with follow-up, requirements of full documentation of where you will be staying, etc. https://hidot.hawaii.gov/blog/2020/04/24/improved-verification-process-implemented-for-airline-passengers/ https://hidot.hawaii.gov/blog/2020/04/24/improved-verificati... They do not have the hospital capacity for this getting out of control.
- netllama 7y ago
  No one has the hospital capacity for COVID19 getting out of control. That's the fundamental reason for the quarantines everywhere.
  - dylz 7y ago
    Preaching to the choir. I guess what I mean is that as a small island state far from anywhere else, if it gets bad, it gets _much worse_ than on the mainland.

usaar333 7y ago

Bay Area has dropped significantly: https://covid-19.direct/metro/BayArea https://covid-19.direct/metro/BayArea Santa Clara has dropped even more significantly: https://covid-19.direct/county/CA/Santa%20Clara https://covid-19.direct/county/CA/Santa%20Clara. It's at 10 cases/day/million now (3% test positive rate), below even Germany who is opening schools.

lsllc 7y ago

Vermont had it's first day today in 7 weeks with 0 new cases: https://vtdigger.org/2020/04/29/vermont-reports-zero-new-cases-of-covid-19-as-scott-unveils-new-testing-strategy/ https://vtdigger.org/2020/04/29/vermont-reports-zero-new-cas...