the more precise wording would be that you're comparing different time periods and then using that to extrapolate rationale. that's an error of statistical reas

the more precise wording would be that you're comparing different time periods and then using that to extrapolate rationale. that's an error of statistical reasoning. the more accurate exapolation would be relative to the first 4 months of every other studied emerging disease, considering the estimated errors of each of the important variables. you'd fit the various current studies on corona/covid, considering the high uncertainty as (large) estimated error, and providing a range of future outcomes with probabilities on them. instead, you're asserting your worst possible scenario as the most likely outcome. ~~~~~~~~~~~~ now on the idea that we're entirely too blasé about preventable mortality in general, i agree. if we rigorously and intelligently attacked auto accidents, if we addressed cardiopulmonary diseases caused by pollution and poor habits, and if we regularly shut down the economy for the past decades because we want to reduce the hundreds of thousands of contagious disease fatalities every year and had the socioeconomic safety nets in place for that all along, then the current actions would seem more reasonable. instead, the response is out of proportion with our own past actions because of panic and fear. it happened with 9/11, mass shootings, fukushima, and everything else. the herd is not good at reasoning about rare and novel mortality events.