3 ms·
Epidemics are a statistical game, not a black-and-white one. We aren't realistically out to completely eliminate high-mortality pandemics, but reduce the chang
by jmull 7y ago
Epidemics are a statistical game, not a black-and-white one.
We aren't realistically out to completely eliminate high-mortality pandemics, but reduce the changes. E.g., perhaps we can make the hundred year event a thousand year event, and the population mortality 1-2% rather than 10-20%.
The question is not whether the Wuhan wet market was definitively the origin of SARS-Cov-2/Covid-19 in humans, but whether it, and similar markets significantly increase the chances of a similar event in the future.
> So at this point we can't really say the "fix" is to remove these markets, can we?
Yes, I think we can. Given what we know of how viruses evolve, mutate and the mechanisms by which they move from various animals to humans, we want to minimize the points where people come into contact with large amounts and variety of raw animal matter in highly unsanitary conditions. Wet markets are probably the lowest hanging fruit in that category.
- the_af 7y agoI'm unconvinced that minimizing contact with raw animal meat markets -- in what you call "the lowest hanging fruit" -- would "fix" the problem with these kinds of pandemics. Not until we know they are the major factor in spreading the infection. Maybe it would help, or not, but "fix"? Note I'm not disagreeing better sanitary conditions are desirable. I'm disagreeing -- or rather, casting doubt because I'm unconvinced -- that [quote] "we will continue to see pandemics until unsanitary practices like wet markets with exotic animal products are outlawed". If there is a firm conclusion that this was indeed the major factor, sure. My comment was that, according to articles linked to from Wikipedia, the jury still seems to be out on this.
- robocat 7y ago> but whether it, and similar markets significantly increase the chances of a similar event in the future. I’m not defending wet markets but on that theory we should also ban all pets. And ban all livestock. And ban all hunting and eating of hunted meat.