7 ms·

>Putting this into perspective: in roughly a single month, we've already doubled the 7-year average annual number of flu deaths. I am really surprised how ofte

by slg 7y ago

>Putting this into perspective: in roughly a single month, we've already doubled the 7-year average annual number of flu deaths. I am really surprised how often I have seen "it is just the flu" type rhetoric upvoted on HN. I thought this was an intelligent, technological, scientific, and logical community. I don't see how anyone can square the idea that it is just the flu with evidence like what you posted above. COVID-19 has already accumulated a higher death toll in the US than any flu in over 40 years (I'm sure it is longer, but that is as far back as I can find data on with a quick Google search). That is all with basically the entire country under stay at home orders. There would be hundreds of thousands if not millions of deaths if we treated this like the flu.

tptacek 7y ago
Also: even if it was "just the flu": another flu would be a catastrophe all its own! You can still die of the flu, even in the post-C19 (or F19) world!
- arcticbull 7y ago
  Not necessarily. The flu mutates substantially and often, and new subtypes keep popping up making a consistently effective vaccine elusive (flu shots are 10-60% effective each year based on our ability to guess which strains will dominate). There's no meaningful evidence indicating the same is true for COVID yet, so once we've all had it -- or a vaccine -- it could be over just like that, never to be heard from again. Unlike the flu. In the full course of time the flu may well prove to be much more dangerous. Time will tell. Not saying one way or the other just that the worst case you've illustrated is far from a foregone conclusion.
alejohausner 7y ago
I never said that this is "just the flu". I put some thought into my comment, and it's provoked some discussion. Let me provoke some more: I predict that, by the end of this year, the number of total deaths in people over 85 will be about the same as last year. I'm using the fact that most deaths from this virus occur in people who are already ill from other conditions. Frail old people are much more vulnerable to succumbing to infections. Last year, about 13.5% of people over age 85 in the USA died [1]. That high death rate means that, at some point in the year, 13.5% of those people fell very ill, and had only months to live. This year, without the pandemic, a similar proportion of people would be close to death. If they caught the virus that causes covid-19, their death would be hastened. However, they would have died anyway, this year. I know it's callous to say "they would have died anyway," since death is a terrible thing. However, humans have a limited lifespan, for some mysterious reason, and at some point our bodies start to betray us: we develop heart disease or cancer, and our immune systems become less effective. It's as if our bodies are lowering their defenses, almost inviting death. Often, along comes a flu, to finish the job. This year's angel of death is a different respiratory virus, not influenza. 1. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/databriefs/db355.htm https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/databriefs/db355.htm
- slg 7y ago
  According to this admittedly outdated CDC page[1], the 85+ age group makes up 30% of COVID-19 deaths. Even if you are right about that group (which I think is feasible but unlikely), there is still a huge population of people who are dying who were not previously close to dying. [1] - https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm
  - arcticbull 7y ago
    That's not an entirely fair way to slice, since only 6% of deaths in any age group are folks without comorbidities. I'll dig up the reference, pretty sure it was NYC data. We'll have to wait for the dust to settle but I'm pretty sure we're looking at an upper bound worst-case of basically everything we've measured re COVID.
    - tptacek 7y ago
      I'm at a loss for why anyone should care about the fact that younger people dying have "comorbidities". If asthma or hypertension have suddenly become a death sentence, that is a very big deal; virtually every American has families with one of the "qualifying" C19 comorbidities.
      - arcticbull 7y ago
        It's not a death sentence by any stretch, you're substantially overreacting. CDC data puts the US flu fatality rate at 0.1% (up to 20-60,000 deaths for 45,000,000 annual infections ~= 0.1%) and serology studies are putting COVID at around 0.3% -- not adjusting for comorbidities. So it's worse than the flu overall, but massively skewed older so for young and especially young and healthy people it's not materially different than the flu. For kids, its better than the flu -- which kills both the young and the old. And yeah, the flu kills seemingly young and healthy people, too, we just don't really talk about it. For old folks, it's much worse. We need to keep them safe, but that doesn't mean we need to freak out about children catching it when they're gonna be just fine. [1] Remember 99.2% of the folks who died in Italy averaged 80.5 years old with an average of 3 comorbidities. Zero health professionals under the age of 49 died in Italy despite constant and repeated exposure. [2] Not everyone is equally affected by COVID and for the overwhelming majority (99.7% of all people), it's by no means a death sentence. I strongly suggest you read [2] for perspective. I know all the breathless screaming on television has colored your perspective on all this, and yeah, it's not great. However, allow data to be your guide. We're gonna be just fine. [1] https://www.wsj.com/articles/consensus-is-emerging-that-children-are-less-vulnerable-to-coronavirus-11587988688 https://www.wsj.com/articles/consensus-is-emerging-that-chil... [2] https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/global-covid-19-case-fatality-rates/ https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/global-covid-19-case-fatality-...
djmips 7y ago
If you thought programmers were 'scientific and logical' you'd be dead wrong. I used to think that too but after years of experience and seeing so many cargo cult, gut feeling, lazy opinions, bad optimizing just within programming itself, you realize that as a group we are quite prone to emotional argument, lack of discipline and general laziness with argument or research on a topic.
jshevek 7y ago
>I am really surprised how often I have seen "it is just the flu" type rhetoric upvoted on HN This is a unfair way to respond to [alejo's] comment. The fact that you have responded in this way to this thoughtful response suggests to me that the problem may lie in the way you are reading, understanding, and internally labeling other people's views.

by slg 7y ago

tptacek 7y ago

Also: even if it was "just the flu": another flu would be a catastrophe all its own! You can still die of the flu, even in the post-C19 (or F19) world!

arcticbull 7y ago
Not necessarily. The flu mutates substantially and often, and new subtypes keep popping up making a consistently effective vaccine elusive (flu shots are 10-60% effective each year based on our ability to guess which strains will dominate). There's no meaningful evidence indicating the same is true for COVID yet, so once we've all had it -- or a vaccine -- it could be over just like that, never to be heard from again. Unlike the flu. In the full course of time the flu may well prove to be much more dangerous. Time will tell. Not saying one way or the other just that the worst case you've illustrated is far from a foregone conclusion.

alejohausner 7y ago

I never said that this is "just the flu". I put some thought into my comment, and it's provoked some discussion. Let me provoke some more: I predict that, by the end of this year, the number of total deaths in people over 85 will be about the same as last year. I'm using the fact that most deaths from this virus occur in people who are already ill from other conditions. Frail old people are much more vulnerable to succumbing to infections. Last year, about 13.5% of people over age 85 in the USA died [1]. That high death rate means that, at some point in the year, 13.5% of those people fell very ill, and had only months to live. This year, without the pandemic, a similar proportion of people would be close to death. If they caught the virus that causes covid-19, their death would be hastened. However, they would have died anyway, this year. I know it's callous to say "they would have died anyway," since death is a terrible thing. However, humans have a limited lifespan, for some mysterious reason, and at some point our bodies start to betray us: we develop heart disease or cancer, and our immune systems become less effective. It's as if our bodies are lowering their defenses, almost inviting death. Often, along comes a flu, to finish the job. This year's angel of death is a different respiratory virus, not influenza. 1. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/databriefs/db355.htm https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/databriefs/db355.htm

slg 7y ago
According to this admittedly outdated CDC page[1], the 85+ age group makes up 30% of COVID-19 deaths. Even if you are right about that group (which I think is feasible but unlikely), there is still a huge population of people who are dying who were not previously close to dying. [1] - https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm
- arcticbull 7y ago
  That's not an entirely fair way to slice, since only 6% of deaths in any age group are folks without comorbidities. I'll dig up the reference, pretty sure it was NYC data. We'll have to wait for the dust to settle but I'm pretty sure we're looking at an upper bound worst-case of basically everything we've measured re COVID.
  - tptacek 7y ago
    I'm at a loss for why anyone should care about the fact that younger people dying have "comorbidities". If asthma or hypertension have suddenly become a death sentence, that is a very big deal; virtually every American has families with one of the "qualifying" C19 comorbidities.
    - arcticbull 7y ago
      It's not a death sentence by any stretch, you're substantially overreacting. CDC data puts the US flu fatality rate at 0.1% (up to 20-60,000 deaths for 45,000,000 annual infections ~= 0.1%) and serology studies are putting COVID at around 0.3% -- not adjusting for comorbidities. So it's worse than the flu overall, but massively skewed older so for young and especially young and healthy people it's not materially different than the flu. For kids, its better than the flu -- which kills both the young and the old. And yeah, the flu kills seemingly young and healthy people, too, we just don't really talk about it. For old folks, it's much worse. We need to keep them safe, but that doesn't mean we need to freak out about children catching it when they're gonna be just fine. [1] Remember 99.2% of the folks who died in Italy averaged 80.5 years old with an average of 3 comorbidities. Zero health professionals under the age of 49 died in Italy despite constant and repeated exposure. [2] Not everyone is equally affected by COVID and for the overwhelming majority (99.7% of all people), it's by no means a death sentence. I strongly suggest you read [2] for perspective. I know all the breathless screaming on television has colored your perspective on all this, and yeah, it's not great. However, allow data to be your guide. We're gonna be just fine. [1] https://www.wsj.com/articles/consensus-is-emerging-that-children-are-less-vulnerable-to-coronavirus-11587988688 https://www.wsj.com/articles/consensus-is-emerging-that-chil... [2] https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/global-covid-19-case-fatality-rates/ https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/global-covid-19-case-fatality-...

djmips 7y ago

If you thought programmers were 'scientific and logical' you'd be dead wrong. I used to think that too but after years of experience and seeing so many cargo cult, gut feeling, lazy opinions, bad optimizing just within programming itself, you realize that as a group we are quite prone to emotional argument, lack of discipline and general laziness with argument or research on a topic.

jshevek 7y ago

>I am really surprised how often I have seen "it is just the flu" type rhetoric upvoted on HN This is a unfair way to respond to [alejo's] comment. The fact that you have responded in this way to this thoughtful response suggests to me that the problem may lie in the way you are reading, understanding, and internally labeling other people's views.