3 ms·

I also struggle with this, and this is my theory: In 2008 every day brought in bad news, with more and more banks failing, home being foreclosed, bad financial

by yumraj 7y ago

I also struggle with this, and this is my theory: In 2008 every day brought in bad news, with more and more banks failing, home being foreclosed, bad financial numbers, Congress trying to bailout .... which led to overall bad sentiment and the decline in stock market. Right now, if I look at the new cycle what do I see: A city wants to open up, layoffs, a state wants to open up, stimulus money, people on the beach, layoffs, more stimulus money, GDP down, virus in works, 20% in NY may have been infected, Remdesivir is working.... So, is it a bad news or optimistic news? It's all mixed in. No one knows how to process medical side and financial side together. On top of that there is a lot of liquidity in the market. So, what happens, it ends up in the stock market thus inflating it. I think there would be a massive whiplash once we start seeing higher unemployment numbers and the real impact of March-? shutdown and see a massive drop in the stock market. But who knows??

zerkten 7y ago
>> a massive whiplash once we start seeing higher unemployment numbers My bet is on this. A lot of people in the market and on main street are assuming that we'll be able to get up and running again quickly when we have better treatments and later a vaccine, i.e. there is nothing structural weighing down a return. I'm not so optimistic because tourism and travel are huge markets with impacts on other markets. I also don't believe that the situation from 2018 until the pandemic was sustainable. Problems existed then, but were not exposed. There are leadership failures in different places, but it's hard to account for all of those across government and business right now.
- yumraj 7y ago
  > situation from 2018 until the pandemic was sustainable Exactly. Many, most ?, were expecting a correction/recession even without any pandemic in 2019/2020. Now this massive shock is bound to shake everything up. I'm not going to use the D word but recession is a given.

by yumraj 7y ago

zerkten 7y ago

>> a massive whiplash once we start seeing higher unemployment numbers My bet is on this. A lot of people in the market and on main street are assuming that we'll be able to get up and running again quickly when we have better treatments and later a vaccine, i.e. there is nothing structural weighing down a return. I'm not so optimistic because tourism and travel are huge markets with impacts on other markets. I also don't believe that the situation from 2018 until the pandemic was sustainable. Problems existed then, but were not exposed. There are leadership failures in different places, but it's hard to account for all of those across government and business right now.

yumraj 7y ago
> situation from 2018 until the pandemic was sustainable Exactly. Many, most ?, were expecting a correction/recession even without any pandemic in 2019/2020. Now this massive shock is bound to shake everything up. I'm not going to use the D word but recession is a given.