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I disagree that this quarter will be a blip, but I agree with the sentiment here. There are runways and parking lots in Washington full of undelivered planes w
by thephyber 7y ago
I disagree that this quarter will be a blip, but I agree with the sentiment here.
There are runways and parking lots in Washington full of undelivered planes which are waiting on contractual disputes related to the quality assurance of the 737 MAX issues. A significant percentage of Boeing planes are currently undeliverable and post-pandemic world airlines are likely going to cancel / downsize contracts or at least spend significant legal fees to attempt to do so.
Barring a quick and easy vaccination or herd immunity that accidentally happens much faster than expected, travel is unlikely to recover this year and perhaps not next. Clearing their backlog of planes will likely take 4+ years unless the company can convince people and airlines to trust them again.
- whatok 7y agoDelivery has taken so long that they are going to run into refund periods soon. There's normally massive down payments for these which deters cancellations but these aren't ordinary times. You are almost certainly going to see consolidation within the airlines and there's little to no chance of more plane purchases in that case.
- gibba999 7y agoIf this lasts long enough for good tools for telepresence to be in place, travel may never recover. Or if countries close borders and don't reopen as much. Or... There are a lot more risks here than just draw-out pandemic.