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To add to this: even within the S&P-500, the better ones seem to do much better than the average ones, so the NASDAQ-100 outperforms the S&P-500. As an investo

To add to this: even within the S&P-500, the better ones seem to do much better than the average ones, so the NASDAQ-100 outperforms the S&P-500. As an investor: Very happy with my "QQQ" (NASDAQ-100 ETF) investment, but my more diverse retirement portfolio is nowhere near as good. I have recently been buying hard hit stocks that I think will survive over the long term: Disney, Marriott.. As an employee: well, the trick is to remain employed.

basch 7y ago
QQQ was a good growth bet, but so is pure AMZN. 50% of QQQ is FAAAMIN (Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Alphabet, Microsoft, Intel, Netflix, with Cisco right below but they dont fit the acronym.) https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=4&startYear=1985&firstMonth=1&endYear=2020&lastMonth=12&calendarAligned=true&includeYTD=false&initialAmount=10000&annualOperation=1&annualAdjustment=0&inflationAdjusted=true&annualPercentage=0.0&frequency=2&rebalanceType=5&absoluteDeviation=35.0&relativeDeviation=30.0&showYield=false&reinvestDividends=true&benchmark=-1&benchmarkSymbol=QQQ&portfolioNames=true&portfolioName1=NASDAQ+100+Leveraged+Parity+Risk+on+Margin&portfolioName2=NASDAQ+100+Leveraged+Parity+Risk+ETFs&portfolioName3=Amazon&symbol1=QQQ&allocation1_1=165&symbol2=TLT&allocation2_1=135&symbol3=CASHX&allocation3_1=-200&symbol4=TQQQ&allocation4_2=55&symbol5=TMF&allocation5_2=45&symbol6=AMZN&allocation6_3=100 https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&t... Investing in Amazon is almost as profitable as a 3x leveraged parity risk bet on QQQ. I get what you are saying, "buy when people are fearful", but do you really think it will be more profitable than betting on the top 6 tech stocks?
- jhallenworld 7y ago
  Yeah, this is purely fear- people overshoot on the way down, you can profit. I made some easy money in 2008 on certain banks that were obviously not going to fail. The bet is that things return to some sort of normal. I would not normally buy these stocks, they have nowhere near the growth potential as the tech stocks. I guess I don't believe in the statistical basis of the risk calculations (bell curve is an invalid model for sure for stocks), so only one stock is way riskier than you would think and tech only is already exposing you to some kinds of systemic risk.
  - basch 7y ago
    In theory QQQ might not be "tech" forever. FAAAMIN could be replaced by the next big thing. https://www.visualcapitalist.com/a-visual-history-of-the-largest-companies-by-market-cap-1999-today/ https://www.visualcapitalist.com/a-visual-history-of-the-lar... https://howmuch.net/articles/100-years-of-americas-top-10-companies https://howmuch.net/articles/100-years-of-americas-top-10-co... QQQ would be a hedge on "big" but not necessarily just these current big.

basch 7y ago

QQQ was a good growth bet, but so is pure AMZN. 50% of QQQ is FAAAMIN (Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Alphabet, Microsoft, Intel, Netflix, with Cisco right below but they dont fit the acronym.) https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=4&startYear=1985&firstMonth=1&endYear=2020&lastMonth=12&calendarAligned=true&includeYTD=false&initialAmount=10000&annualOperation=1&annualAdjustment=0&inflationAdjusted=true&annualPercentage=0.0&frequency=2&rebalanceType=5&absoluteDeviation=35.0&relativeDeviation=30.0&showYield=false&reinvestDividends=true&benchmark=-1&benchmarkSymbol=QQQ&portfolioNames=true&portfolioName1=NASDAQ+100+Leveraged+Parity+Risk+on+Margin&portfolioName2=NASDAQ+100+Leveraged+Parity+Risk+ETFs&portfolioName3=Amazon&symbol1=QQQ&allocation1_1=165&symbol2=TLT&allocation2_1=135&symbol3=CASHX&allocation3_1=-200&symbol4=TQQQ&allocation4_2=55&symbol5=TMF&allocation5_2=45&symbol6=AMZN&allocation6_3=100 https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&t... Investing in Amazon is almost as profitable as a 3x leveraged parity risk bet on QQQ. I get what you are saying, "buy when people are fearful", but do you really think it will be more profitable than betting on the top 6 tech stocks?

jhallenworld 7y ago
Yeah, this is purely fear- people overshoot on the way down, you can profit. I made some easy money in 2008 on certain banks that were obviously not going to fail. The bet is that things return to some sort of normal. I would not normally buy these stocks, they have nowhere near the growth potential as the tech stocks. I guess I don't believe in the statistical basis of the risk calculations (bell curve is an invalid model for sure for stocks), so only one stock is way riskier than you would think and tech only is already exposing you to some kinds of systemic risk.
- basch 7y ago
  In theory QQQ might not be "tech" forever. FAAAMIN could be replaced by the next big thing. https://www.visualcapitalist.com/a-visual-history-of-the-largest-companies-by-market-cap-1999-today/ https://www.visualcapitalist.com/a-visual-history-of-the-lar... https://howmuch.net/articles/100-years-of-americas-top-10-companies https://howmuch.net/articles/100-years-of-americas-top-10-co... QQQ would be a hedge on "big" but not necessarily just these current big.