I'm not being pedantic. In this case, a relevant factor that you consider irrelevant out of convenience is being ignored. Call it pedantic all you want. It ma

I'm not being pedantic. In this case, a relevant factor that you consider irrelevant out of convenience is being ignored. Call it pedantic all you want. It matters. Not all states locked down, at all. That matters. Travel between states, for the most part, fell to record low rates. This happened voluntarily, before legally mandated lockdowns were triggered. You asked "what would have happened if we hadn't locked down." I pointed out that not all places locked down, and many locked down later. "Trying to tease out the data your asking for isn't possible due to inadequate reporting, inadequate testing, and the fact that travel between states is free" It's not hard to look at the Johns Hopkins data set, which contains data at the county level for the US. Not much "teasing out" to do there. It's right there. If we use admitted cases as a benchmark for actual infections, assuming it's proportional at a relatively constant level, it's not hard to do.