3 ms·
Yes, you are right to point out the official 'death rate' is useless, because policies for testing are different. Sweden does very little testing so their 'deat
by jariel 7y ago
Yes, you are right to point out the official 'death rate' is useless, because policies for testing are different. Sweden does very little testing so their 'death rate' will look high.
BUT - we can compare deaths to 'actual antibody rate' when doing broader sampling.
For NYC we have 12K dead as of 2 days ago (and it will be 15K even with 0 more cases, because it takes time for people to die).
They had a 20% 'antibody rate' in the city from a report released a few days ago.
NYC proper is 9M people, so that's 1.8M positive, 15K/1.8M is 0.8% 'true death rate'. Which is not that far from the earlier estimates of 1-4%.
Germay is saying 0.58% based in their random smaples.
The Swedish Ambassador said 1/3 of Stockholm has it. Stockholm is 900K people so that's 300K. They have 1K dead, will be about 1.3K so that's about 0.4% 'true death rate'.
0.4% is nicer lower then NY and Germany it seems, but it's not like Swedes are special beings, we can't assume they're going to be too-too far off other, similar places.
So the 'true death number' is probably somewhere in the range of 0.4-0.9% as of the information we have right now.
This is kind of a high number to be shooting for 'immunity' especially when A) We didn't have that number before B) We still are not sure of the number now C) We don't know if people will be immune (are asymptomatic people immune?) or how long that will last. And of course, those are big numbers. 0.6% of Americans is a little over 2 Million people. That's a lot of people.
Finally, there is no doubt that some countries have had success. Taiwan, Korea, NZ, even Australia have done really well with it. Swedes are smart, wealthy people, they literally talk about themselves as being 'humanitarian superpowers' it seems reasonable that intelligent people would use effective measures to protect their own population.