NPR reported that 1.3 million would have died without social isolation in the US. This is 20x higher than the latest estimate. On hacker news I've seen people c

NPR reported that 1.3 million would have died without social isolation in the US. This is 20x higher than the latest estimate. On hacker news I've seen people claim figures ranging from 1-2 million, to 3-6 million on the more extreme end. Even if we take Sweden's case at face value this is still 1/4 the multiplier that people seem to think it is. Furthermore, Sweden is pursuing a strategy of herd immunity: let people get infected so that the populace becomes immune. They should see a higher rise in deaths, but also a faster decline as the virus runs out of viable hosts. A tall, narrow spike versus a wide, shorter curve. The area under the final curve is what we're looking for.