There's lots of counfounding factors, especially since there are basically no countries with no restrictions (Sweden has the same level of restrictions as many

There's lots of counfounding factors, especially since there are basically no countries with no restrictions (Sweden has the same level of restrictions as many US states, for example). But in general, yes. Areas with stronger restrictions have significantly fewer deaths, and areas that enacted restrictions saw deaths drop by 3-5x already, with continued downward trends as opposed to upward exponential ones.