5 ms·

Are infections and death tolls in the countries with much less restrictive measures an order of magnitude higher?

jaggederest 6y ago
Yes, actually. Here's an example, probably the best natural experiment we're going to see in this context. Five times more, depending on your idea of "order of magnitude". https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/28/europe/sweden-coronavirus-lockdown-strategy-intl/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/28/europe/sweden-coronavirus-loc...
- joshuaheard 6y ago
  An order of magnitude usually means 10x, ie 140 vs 14. According to your article, Sweden has had a lower death rate than the UK, Spain, or Italy.
  - jaggederest 6y ago
    Ah, this is hacker news - to me, an order of magnitude means double, 2^n where N=2 and N=>4, on deaths per 100k. Those are different countries, though, with much higher population density. This is the only case where culturally and demographically similar countries pursued different courses in a way that makes them eligible for direct comparison.
  - kaitai 6y ago
    One can compare it to its immediate neighbors (Finland, Denmark, Norway) and get your order of magnitude right there. Norway: 206 deaths, population a bit over 5.8 million. Finland: 199 deaths, population a bit over 5 million. Sweden: 2,355 deaths, population a bit over 10 million. I'll let you carry out the division yourself. Comparing to its geographical and cultural neighbors helps deal with differences in city structure, public health system, trust in government, population density, etc.
    - djrogers 6y ago
      You’re comparing apples to oranges here - Sweden is pursuing a narrow tall spike before getting to herd immunity, and Norway and Finland are trying for a looooong shallow curve. The area under the curve is what counts, and we won’t know those numbers for months.
    - postalrat 6y ago
      Can we compare New York with its neighbors?
      - kaitai 6y ago
        Compare it with equally dense neighbors, sure!
    - joshuaheard 6y ago
      All of these European countries are more similar than different. What we see here is significant data that contradicts the conclusions in the article. In other words, it is possible that Sweden's policy is working.
- aisofteng 6y ago
  The goal of the shelter in place is to “flatten the curve” so that the medical system is not overloaded. According to that article, they believed that their medical system could handle the load and has.
  - mixmastamyk 6y ago
    And if true they are just bringing them forward.
- manfredo 6y ago
  NPR reported that 1.3 million would have died without social isolation in the US. This is 20x higher than the latest estimate. On hacker news I've seen people claim figures ranging from 1-2 million, to 3-6 million on the more extreme end. Even if we take Sweden's case at face value this is still 1/4 the multiplier that people seem to think it is. Furthermore, Sweden is pursuing a strategy of herd immunity: let people get infected so that the populace becomes immune. They should see a higher rise in deaths, but also a faster decline as the virus runs out of viable hosts. A tall, narrow spike versus a wide, shorter curve. The area under the final curve is what we're looking for.
- postalrat 6y ago
  They do a good job making Sweden look bad till they mention UK, Spain, Italy. Then go on to say it's a bit more complicated.
dboreham 6y ago
Don't need to look at other countries just compare New York with LA.
- mennis16 6y ago
  I am definitely on the lockdown side of things, and I think NYC especially bungled their response, but I also don't think this is a fair comparison- NYC is so much more densely packed.
joshuamorton 6y ago
There's lots of counfounding factors, especially since there are basically no countries with no restrictions (Sweden has the same level of restrictions as many US states, for example). But in general, yes. Areas with stronger restrictions have significantly fewer deaths, and areas that enacted restrictions saw deaths drop by 3-5x already, with continued downward trends as opposed to upward exponential ones.
mattkrause 6y ago
Early in the outbreak, Italy locked down cities in the North, but not the rest of the country. Areas just within the lock-down area fared much better than those just outside it. See Figure S3 here: https://t.co/JYf1F5GnYu?amp=1 https://t.co/JYf1F5GnYu?amp=1
necubi 6y ago
New York has >50x deaths per capita as SF, which sheltered-in-place a week earlier (and which had been steadily moving in that direction for two weeks prior).
- brink 6y ago
  This could be a different story a year from now, where NY ripped the band-aid off and achieved herd immunity long before SF, and SF took a much longer time resulting in a longer economical slump and still similar deaths over a longer period of time. I'm not saying it will be that way, but it's worth considering.
  - koolba 6y ago
    And even that could be skewed by the more at risk populations fleeing for the relative safety of the suburbs and then dying there.
  - throw_away2 6y ago
    That's not what happened during the 1918 Flu: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/03/upshot/coronavirus-cities-social-distancing-better-employment.html https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/03/upshot/corona...
    - postalrat 6y ago
      Why do people keep linking to cnn.com? You don't think they have an agenda of their own? Link to something a bit more credible.

Yes, actually. Here's an example, probably the best natural experiment we're going to see in this context. Five times more, depending on your idea of "order of magnitude". https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/28/europe/sweden-coronavirus-lockdown-strategy-intl/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/28/europe/sweden-coronavirus-loc...

joshuaheard 6y ago
An order of magnitude usually means 10x, ie 140 vs 14. According to your article, Sweden has had a lower death rate than the UK, Spain, or Italy.
- jaggederest 6y ago
  Ah, this is hacker news - to me, an order of magnitude means double, 2^n where N=2 and N=>4, on deaths per 100k. Those are different countries, though, with much higher population density. This is the only case where culturally and demographically similar countries pursued different courses in a way that makes them eligible for direct comparison.
- kaitai 6y ago
  One can compare it to its immediate neighbors (Finland, Denmark, Norway) and get your order of magnitude right there. Norway: 206 deaths, population a bit over 5.8 million. Finland: 199 deaths, population a bit over 5 million. Sweden: 2,355 deaths, population a bit over 10 million. I'll let you carry out the division yourself. Comparing to its geographical and cultural neighbors helps deal with differences in city structure, public health system, trust in government, population density, etc.
  - djrogers 6y ago
    You’re comparing apples to oranges here - Sweden is pursuing a narrow tall spike before getting to herd immunity, and Norway and Finland are trying for a looooong shallow curve. The area under the curve is what counts, and we won’t know those numbers for months.
  - postalrat 6y ago
    Can we compare New York with its neighbors?
    - kaitai 6y ago
      Compare it with equally dense neighbors, sure!
  - joshuaheard 6y ago
    All of these European countries are more similar than different. What we see here is significant data that contradicts the conclusions in the article. In other words, it is possible that Sweden's policy is working.
aisofteng 6y ago
The goal of the shelter in place is to “flatten the curve” so that the medical system is not overloaded. According to that article, they believed that their medical system could handle the load and has.
- mixmastamyk 6y ago
  And if true they are just bringing them forward.
manfredo 6y ago
NPR reported that 1.3 million would have died without social isolation in the US. This is 20x higher than the latest estimate. On hacker news I've seen people claim figures ranging from 1-2 million, to 3-6 million on the more extreme end. Even if we take Sweden's case at face value this is still 1/4 the multiplier that people seem to think it is. Furthermore, Sweden is pursuing a strategy of herd immunity: let people get infected so that the populace becomes immune. They should see a higher rise in deaths, but also a faster decline as the virus runs out of viable hosts. A tall, narrow spike versus a wide, shorter curve. The area under the final curve is what we're looking for.
postalrat 6y ago
They do a good job making Sweden look bad till they mention UK, Spain, Italy. Then go on to say it's a bit more complicated.

dboreham 6y ago

Don't need to look at other countries just compare New York with LA.

mennis16 6y ago
I am definitely on the lockdown side of things, and I think NYC especially bungled their response, but I also don't think this is a fair comparison- NYC is so much more densely packed.

joshuamorton 6y ago

There's lots of counfounding factors, especially since there are basically no countries with no restrictions (Sweden has the same level of restrictions as many US states, for example). But in general, yes. Areas with stronger restrictions have significantly fewer deaths, and areas that enacted restrictions saw deaths drop by 3-5x already, with continued downward trends as opposed to upward exponential ones.

mattkrause 6y ago

Early in the outbreak, Italy locked down cities in the North, but not the rest of the country. Areas just within the lock-down area fared much better than those just outside it. See Figure S3 here: https://t.co/JYf1F5GnYu?amp=1 https://t.co/JYf1F5GnYu?amp=1

necubi 6y ago

New York has >50x deaths per capita as SF, which sheltered-in-place a week earlier (and which had been steadily moving in that direction for two weeks prior).

brink 6y ago
This could be a different story a year from now, where NY ripped the band-aid off and achieved herd immunity long before SF, and SF took a much longer time resulting in a longer economical slump and still similar deaths over a longer period of time. I'm not saying it will be that way, but it's worth considering.
- koolba 6y ago
  And even that could be skewed by the more at risk populations fleeing for the relative safety of the suburbs and then dying there.
- throw_away2 6y ago
  That's not what happened during the 1918 Flu: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/03/upshot/coronavirus-cities-social-distancing-better-employment.html https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/03/upshot/corona...
  - postalrat 6y ago
    Why do people keep linking to cnn.com? You don't think they have an agenda of their own? Link to something a bit more credible.