7 ms·

Essentially, Bitcoin is a Ponzi scheme with deflation built into the algorithm so that scarcity is artificially created over time to maintain the illusion of va

Essentially, Bitcoin is a Ponzi scheme with deflation built into the algorithm so that scarcity is artificially created over time to maintain the illusion of value.

abstractbarista 6y ago
How do you feel about the Dollar in comparison? It appears to me that one constantly devalues the units held, like an invisible tax on the poor, while the other appreciates.
- wmf 6y ago
  Poor people are supposed to benefit from inflation because their debts can be paid back with money that's worth less. Meanwhile savers are supposed to use investments, not cash.
- naniwaduni 6y ago
  Keep in mind that the poor hold fewer units; this is almost, only subtly different from, the definition of poor. In fact, the poor often hold negative units, in the form of debt.
- remmargorp64 6y ago
  The US Dollar can be adjusted as needed, according to the needs of society (such as population growth and economic expansion). It's backed by the force of an entire military, and is also backed by an interconnected mesh of dependencies across an entire global economy. If the US government fails so spectacularly that the US Dollar loses value, do you honestly think that the internet will even be working at that point? And without functioning internet, there won't be anyone mining bitcoin, which means that control of the blockchain will be easily seized by whoever has control of the largest mining pool. This would very quickly result in complete devaluation of Bitcoin (but not before whoever took control would be able to cash in a LOT of money). If we had truly decentralized peer-to-peer internet (think ham radio over mesh with millions of portable devices or something) with truly peer-to-peer DNS and full encryption, and no centralized control, then MAYBE bitcoin might have a chance if the government collapsed. But we don't. So (at least for now), the idea that Bitcoin would function as a viable currency in that scenario is a giant joke. It's true that the US Dollar is inflationary (while Bitcoin is "deflationary"), but that is by design to drive economic growth. Simulations (and history) have shown that with a slightly inflationary economy, people are more likely to spend their money instead of holding onto it. This causes a constant cycle of spending and earning, driving more goods to be created, and causing more people to do more work. Deflationary economies, on the other hand, often result with the economy stagnating (because people are more inclined to just hold onto their money instead of spending it). You could argue that this is better (because people like the idea of their money gaining in value over time), but to make that argument, you would have to prove that economic growth is a bad thing.
  - xur17 6y ago
    Alternatively, perhaps Bitcoin is just another payments system with a different set of tradeoffs. Namely - it has a preset supply schedule that you can easily see, which won't be affected by political whims, or change at a moment's notice.
    - remmargorp64 6y ago
      Sure, and the same could be said about practically every other crypto-currency. As to the idea that it isn't subject to whims or political stability, I would argue that one merely has to look at the history of Bitcoin's price to prove that statement is false. Bitcoin's price is highly reactive to political news and random whims of the market (as well as manipulation by bad actors). I'm not saying that crypto-currency doesn't have its place. I'm just pointing out that a lot of the fundamental principles that people swear by when it comes to Bitcoin are flawed.
scared2 6y ago
I wouldn't call it Ponzi scheme. But I totally agree that it is an algorithm built to mimic scarcity and deflation.
- remmargorp64 6y ago
  A common theme with Ponzi schemes is that the people at the beginning who created the scheme (or who invested in it earliest) benefit greatly by future people buying into the scheme. Bitcoin started with its value essentially at nothing, and the early "investors" were able to create tons of it out of thin air. Provided they held onto that Bitcoin, the "value" of the "currency" only increased as more and more people bought into the notion that it had value. You can see how this would heavily incentivize early investors/miners/buyers to perpetuate the scheme. Many early "investors" in Bitcoin made millions of dollars off of their gambles. I personally know quite a few of those people. I hate to pull the wool away from your eyes, but that's not a deflationary, stable currency. That's a Ponzi scheme.
  - chemmail 6y ago
    Except the creator(s) have not cashed out even when they hit $20 billion USD. What are they waiting for? $200 billion USD?
    - robjan 6y ago
      We don't even know if the creator is alive
    - remmargorp64 6y ago
      Even though the original creators haven't cashed out, there are many other early adopters who have
  - andirk 6y ago
    "A common theme with Ponzi schemes is that the people at the beginning who created the scheme (or who invested in it earliest) benefit greatly by future people buying into the scheme." You can make this argument for any created product, especially any currency. "out of thin air" Yes. That is currently how most currencies work.
deleted 6y ago
[deleted]
panarky 6y ago
Are we destined to spend the next 10 years endlessly rehashing the same stale arguments of the last 10 years? First we'll debate if Bitcoin is a Ponzi scam. Next it'll be whether there's any non-criminal use case. Then how it's not "real money". Please, won't some very intelligent dude please educate us all about Dutch tulips?
- wmf 6y ago
  This is inherent to the structure of HN. Fix the system, fix the discussion.
  - remmargorp64 6y ago
    How would you fix it? I see the constant rehashing as a byproduct of the fact that the same old topics get reposted over and over again as they resurge in relevance. I see this as a byproduct of crowd consciousness. Not everyone is going to see a post before it dips out of sight, so it's bound to pop back up again eventually (if it becomes relevant again), and then new people will see the second/third/fourth postings. As such, the same rebuttals have to be posted over and over again, so that the new audience has contextual information. It's not an easy problem to solve.
    - wmf 6y ago
      Threads don't have to start with a blank page. There should be a way to surface background context.
      - remmargorp64 6y ago
        That's not a bad idea, but you would need to have some mechanism to prevent popular (but now irrelevant) information from previous posts from immediately overwhelming the new context.
    - panarky 6y ago
      Perhaps it's a variant of Eternal September https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eternal_September https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eternal_September

Essentially, Bitcoin is a Ponzi scheme with deflation built into the algorithm so that scarcity is artificially created over time to maintain the illusion of value.

abstractbarista 6y ago

How do you feel about the Dollar in comparison? It appears to me that one constantly devalues the units held, like an invisible tax on the poor, while the other appreciates.

wmf 6y ago
Poor people are supposed to benefit from inflation because their debts can be paid back with money that's worth less. Meanwhile savers are supposed to use investments, not cash.
naniwaduni 6y ago
Keep in mind that the poor hold fewer units; this is almost, only subtly different from, the definition of poor. In fact, the poor often hold negative units, in the form of debt.
remmargorp64 6y ago
The US Dollar can be adjusted as needed, according to the needs of society (such as population growth and economic expansion). It's backed by the force of an entire military, and is also backed by an interconnected mesh of dependencies across an entire global economy. If the US government fails so spectacularly that the US Dollar loses value, do you honestly think that the internet will even be working at that point? And without functioning internet, there won't be anyone mining bitcoin, which means that control of the blockchain will be easily seized by whoever has control of the largest mining pool. This would very quickly result in complete devaluation of Bitcoin (but not before whoever took control would be able to cash in a LOT of money). If we had truly decentralized peer-to-peer internet (think ham radio over mesh with millions of portable devices or something) with truly peer-to-peer DNS and full encryption, and no centralized control, then MAYBE bitcoin might have a chance if the government collapsed. But we don't. So (at least for now), the idea that Bitcoin would function as a viable currency in that scenario is a giant joke. It's true that the US Dollar is inflationary (while Bitcoin is "deflationary"), but that is by design to drive economic growth. Simulations (and history) have shown that with a slightly inflationary economy, people are more likely to spend their money instead of holding onto it. This causes a constant cycle of spending and earning, driving more goods to be created, and causing more people to do more work. Deflationary economies, on the other hand, often result with the economy stagnating (because people are more inclined to just hold onto their money instead of spending it). You could argue that this is better (because people like the idea of their money gaining in value over time), but to make that argument, you would have to prove that economic growth is a bad thing.
- xur17 6y ago
  Alternatively, perhaps Bitcoin is just another payments system with a different set of tradeoffs. Namely - it has a preset supply schedule that you can easily see, which won't be affected by political whims, or change at a moment's notice.
  - remmargorp64 6y ago
    Sure, and the same could be said about practically every other crypto-currency. As to the idea that it isn't subject to whims or political stability, I would argue that one merely has to look at the history of Bitcoin's price to prove that statement is false. Bitcoin's price is highly reactive to political news and random whims of the market (as well as manipulation by bad actors). I'm not saying that crypto-currency doesn't have its place. I'm just pointing out that a lot of the fundamental principles that people swear by when it comes to Bitcoin are flawed.

scared2 6y ago

I wouldn't call it Ponzi scheme. But I totally agree that it is an algorithm built to mimic scarcity and deflation.

remmargorp64 6y ago
A common theme with Ponzi schemes is that the people at the beginning who created the scheme (or who invested in it earliest) benefit greatly by future people buying into the scheme. Bitcoin started with its value essentially at nothing, and the early "investors" were able to create tons of it out of thin air. Provided they held onto that Bitcoin, the "value" of the "currency" only increased as more and more people bought into the notion that it had value. You can see how this would heavily incentivize early investors/miners/buyers to perpetuate the scheme. Many early "investors" in Bitcoin made millions of dollars off of their gambles. I personally know quite a few of those people. I hate to pull the wool away from your eyes, but that's not a deflationary, stable currency. That's a Ponzi scheme.
- chemmail 6y ago
  Except the creator(s) have not cashed out even when they hit $20 billion USD. What are they waiting for? $200 billion USD?
  - robjan 6y ago
    We don't even know if the creator is alive
  - remmargorp64 6y ago
    Even though the original creators haven't cashed out, there are many other early adopters who have
- andirk 6y ago
  "A common theme with Ponzi schemes is that the people at the beginning who created the scheme (or who invested in it earliest) benefit greatly by future people buying into the scheme." You can make this argument for any created product, especially any currency. "out of thin air" Yes. That is currently how most currencies work.

deleted 6y ago

[deleted]

panarky 6y ago

Are we destined to spend the next 10 years endlessly rehashing the same stale arguments of the last 10 years? First we'll debate if Bitcoin is a Ponzi scam. Next it'll be whether there's any non-criminal use case. Then how it's not "real money". Please, won't some very intelligent dude please educate us all about Dutch tulips?

wmf 6y ago
This is inherent to the structure of HN. Fix the system, fix the discussion.
- remmargorp64 6y ago
  How would you fix it? I see the constant rehashing as a byproduct of the fact that the same old topics get reposted over and over again as they resurge in relevance. I see this as a byproduct of crowd consciousness. Not everyone is going to see a post before it dips out of sight, so it's bound to pop back up again eventually (if it becomes relevant again), and then new people will see the second/third/fourth postings. As such, the same rebuttals have to be posted over and over again, so that the new audience has contextual information. It's not an easy problem to solve.
  - wmf 6y ago
    Threads don't have to start with a blank page. There should be a way to surface background context.
    - remmargorp64 6y ago
      That's not a bad idea, but you would need to have some mechanism to prevent popular (but now irrelevant) information from previous posts from immediately overwhelming the new context.
  - panarky 6y ago
    Perhaps it's a variant of Eternal September https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eternal_September https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eternal_September