5 ms·

And that's despite nearly nationwide shelter in place measures. If those hadn't been implemented, the toll could well be an order of magnitude higher.

deleted 7y ago
[deleted]
shakopeeant 7y ago
And I guess these guys "could" be right also.
JMTQp8lwXL 7y ago
What happens to at-risk people lockdown ends? They could continue to shelter, but if the rest of the world isn't, anybody they make contact with will put them at higher risk due to decreased practice of social distancing.
- forgot_my_pwd 7y ago
  A natural byproduct of a functioning society has always been otherwise avoidable deaths: car accidents, workplace accidents, flu deaths, etc. The idea that we can hide out until the virus completely disappears is a fantasy. The only sustainable path forward is targeted lockdown and isolation for the most vulnerable along with mustering our energies for testing and treatment.
  - dboreham 7y ago
    Not quite true because you can avoid overshooting herd immunity with the slowed spread we will hopefully see now.
    - djrogers 7y ago
      That’s not a good argument - we cannot possibly get to herd immunity with the infection rates we’re seeing under lockdown. Without loosening of the restrictions and a measured return to work, we’ll be stuck in Shelter mode for years before we get to 60+%...
manfredo 7y ago
Are infections and death tolls in the countries with much less restrictive measures an order of magnitude higher?
- jaggederest 7y ago
  Yes, actually. Here's an example, probably the best natural experiment we're going to see in this context. Five times more, depending on your idea of "order of magnitude". https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/28/europe/sweden-coronavirus-lockdown-strategy-intl/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/28/europe/sweden-coronavirus-loc...
  - joshuaheard 7y ago
    An order of magnitude usually means 10x, ie 140 vs 14. According to your article, Sweden has had a lower death rate than the UK, Spain, or Italy.
    - jaggederest 7y ago
      Ah, this is hacker news - to me, an order of magnitude means double, 2^n where N=2 and N=>4, on deaths per 100k. Those are different countries, though, with much higher population density. This is the only case where culturally and demographically similar countries pursued different courses in a way that makes them eligible for direct comparison.
    - kaitai 7y ago
      One can compare it to its immediate neighbors (Finland, Denmark, Norway) and get your order of magnitude right there. Norway: 206 deaths, population a bit over 5.8 million. Finland: 199 deaths, population a bit over 5 million. Sweden: 2,355 deaths, population a bit over 10 million. I'll let you carry out the division yourself. Comparing to its geographical and cultural neighbors helps deal with differences in city structure, public health system, trust in government, population density, etc.
      - djrogers 7y ago
throwawaysea 7y ago
And yet Sweden is doing fine without such orders: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/22/no-lockdown-in-sweden-but-stockholm-could-see-herd-immunity-in-weeks.html https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/22/no-lockdown-in-sweden-but-st... Sorry but there are other paths to containing the virus without resorting to draconian measures, especially when those measures are indiscriminate blunt instruments (for example applying same restrictions to urban and rural areas).
- joshuamorton 7y ago
  Sweden's first case with community spread was from the end of February, so it's been spreading for a month or two less than in, say, Germany. Despite that Sweden has the same per capita infection rate and a per capita death rate of around 3x Germany's. And that's still with some social distancing requests, there just isn't a stay at home order. So yes, unless Sweden tightens restrictions, I'd expect to see it hit an order of magnitude harder than nations doing more restrictions, despite still having some.

deleted 7y ago

[deleted]

shakopeeant 7y ago

And I guess these guys "could" be right also.

JMTQp8lwXL 7y ago

What happens to at-risk people lockdown ends? They could continue to shelter, but if the rest of the world isn't, anybody they make contact with will put them at higher risk due to decreased practice of social distancing.

forgot_my_pwd 7y ago
A natural byproduct of a functioning society has always been otherwise avoidable deaths: car accidents, workplace accidents, flu deaths, etc. The idea that we can hide out until the virus completely disappears is a fantasy. The only sustainable path forward is targeted lockdown and isolation for the most vulnerable along with mustering our energies for testing and treatment.
- dboreham 7y ago
  Not quite true because you can avoid overshooting herd immunity with the slowed spread we will hopefully see now.
  - djrogers 7y ago
    That’s not a good argument - we cannot possibly get to herd immunity with the infection rates we’re seeing under lockdown. Without loosening of the restrictions and a measured return to work, we’ll be stuck in Shelter mode for years before we get to 60+%...

manfredo 7y ago

Are infections and death tolls in the countries with much less restrictive measures an order of magnitude higher?

jaggederest 7y ago
Yes, actually. Here's an example, probably the best natural experiment we're going to see in this context. Five times more, depending on your idea of "order of magnitude". https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/28/europe/sweden-coronavirus-lockdown-strategy-intl/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/28/europe/sweden-coronavirus-loc...
- joshuaheard 7y ago
  An order of magnitude usually means 10x, ie 140 vs 14. According to your article, Sweden has had a lower death rate than the UK, Spain, or Italy.
  - jaggederest 7y ago
    Ah, this is hacker news - to me, an order of magnitude means double, 2^n where N=2 and N=>4, on deaths per 100k. Those are different countries, though, with much higher population density. This is the only case where culturally and demographically similar countries pursued different courses in a way that makes them eligible for direct comparison.
  - kaitai 7y ago
    One can compare it to its immediate neighbors (Finland, Denmark, Norway) and get your order of magnitude right there. Norway: 206 deaths, population a bit over 5.8 million. Finland: 199 deaths, population a bit over 5 million. Sweden: 2,355 deaths, population a bit over 10 million. I'll let you carry out the division yourself. Comparing to its geographical and cultural neighbors helps deal with differences in city structure, public health system, trust in government, population density, etc.
    - djrogers 7y ago

throwawaysea 7y ago

And yet Sweden is doing fine without such orders: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/22/no-lockdown-in-sweden-but-stockholm-could-see-herd-immunity-in-weeks.html https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/22/no-lockdown-in-sweden-but-st... Sorry but there are other paths to containing the virus without resorting to draconian measures, especially when those measures are indiscriminate blunt instruments (for example applying same restrictions to urban and rural areas).

joshuamorton 7y ago
Sweden's first case with community spread was from the end of February, so it's been spreading for a month or two less than in, say, Germany. Despite that Sweden has the same per capita infection rate and a per capita death rate of around 3x Germany's. And that's still with some social distancing requests, there just isn't a stay at home order. So yes, unless Sweden tightens restrictions, I'd expect to see it hit an order of magnitude harder than nations doing more restrictions, despite still having some.