Epidemics are a great example where we can say that prudence is recommended. Perhaps 80% of the population of the Americas was destroyed by the eurasian plagues

Epidemics are a great example where we can say that prudence is recommended. Perhaps 80% of the population of the Americas was destroyed by the eurasian plagues - diseases which Europe had reached viral equilibrium with but the Americas had not. The median of a new outbreak is not worrying, the mean is worrying, and the min is apocalyptic.