> The virus is still spreading in every location in spite of the lockdowns. Don't believe R is below 1 even with the lockdown. The virus still spreads as long

> The virus is still spreading in every location in spite of the lockdowns. Don't believe R is below 1 even with the lockdown. The virus still spreads as long as R is over 0; you still get new infections if there's any spread. However, an R of 1 is the boundary for exponential spread. If infections are not spreading exponentially it has to be below 1 by definition (as I understand it). In the UK death rates and hospital admissions have been falling for some time, indicating R is currently well below 1. Neil Ferguson, one of the UK's top infectious disease modellers estimated the current R value at between 0.6 and 0.7 a couple of days ago: https://unherd.com/thepost/imperials-prof-neil-ferguson-responds-to-the-swedish-critique/ https://unherd.com/thepost/imperials-prof-neil-ferguson-resp... .