Modern pandemic response analysis is of course not weighing pro's and cons of lockdown, but instead anticipating outcomes from different scenarios and mitigatio

Modern pandemic response analysis is of course not weighing pro's and cons of lockdown, but instead anticipating outcomes from different scenarios and mitigation strategies. Ie. What may be the outcomes of not locking down by any measure, and is this response in any way realistically viable? The deeper reflections are missing from public discourse. The problem is that scenario analysis cannot really be open to the public, and is also highly complex where "small" variables may turn out to have high impacts.